What will Rachel do? – Mar 20 2026

Good Friday morning. This is Sam Francis.

DRIVING THE DAY

TEHRAN VISION: Eyes in Westminster remain firmly fixed on the war in Iran this morning, as the government finds itself looking down the barrel of increasing market turmoil from a war it has no control over.

While you were sleeping: Israel launched a fresh wave of attacks on Iran and vice versa (via the BBC) — although PM Benjamin Netanyahu did say he had agreed Donald Trump’s request to “hold off” on attacking Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure. He added that joint U.S. and Israeli strikes had decimated Iran’s ability to enrich uranium and to produce ballistic missiles. Oil prices fell a bit to around $107 a barrel.

But this ain’t over. The United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain all reported attacks overnight and the Telegraph splashes on Saudi Arabia warning it could join the fray. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the U.S. is preparing its “largest strike package yet” while Trump continued to threaten further bombing of Iran’s Kharg Island — which my U.S. colleague Scott Waldman warns could ignite a full-scale war against Gulf energy infrastructure and bring the world closer to a recession. Happy Friday!

Both sides klaxon: U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres has told POLITICO’s Anne McElvoy there are “reasonable grounds” to believe both sides in the Iran conflict may have committed war crimes in the hits on energy infrastructure. Full comments on the EU Confidential podcast.

WIDENING GULF: All this context makes an unhappy Friday for Rachel Reeves as bond yields spike, energy bills threaten to surge, mortgage offers are yanked off the market — and another grim story circulates about defense spending.

The Chancellor … is weighing fresh ways to help households with rising energy bills ahead of the next price cap decision in May (for July). She stressed earlier this week that any help would be “targeted” — although there’s one intriguing line in the Times’ four-bylined story that suggests a universal package might be on the table too.

Hell’s bills: The problem for Reeves is that the economic backdrop has worsened even since Monday, when ministers rolled out £52.4 million for heating oil users. The Sun’s splash by Ryan Sabey, Jack Elsom and James Flanders cites EDF warning the war‑driven spike in oil and gas could add almost £300 a year to the average U.K. energy bill. There could be a triple whammy of sorts here; a bigger surge in energy costs would suggest more households need help … the help per household that they want ends up being bigger … and all while the cost of government borrowing is higher.

Gilt trip: Reeves’ options are being squeezed by a “brutal” gilt sell‑off, driving 10‑year yields toward their highest level since 2008 — fueled by the BoE’s warning that a prolonged Middle East energy shock will stoke inflation. The Financial Times has a write-up. When bond yields spiked in January 2025 it was a huge story.

What you could have won: Public sector finance stats for February should have landed in the last few minutes here — giving a small flavor of what things might have looked like for Reeves without the energy shock from the Iran war.

Meanwhile … The Times’ Larisa Brown reports that ministers could defer plans to replace Britain’s six Type-45 destroyers by years as part of plans to save £10 billion from MOD budgets. She is told the defense investment plan may only be published in June. And it was a story when this thing was delayed past Christmas.

Banking on it: After announcing that interest rates in the U.K. were being held, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey used an interview with Andrew Marr to stress the “obvious point” that a longer war means a weaker economy, with energy and food costs set to climb. The warning tracks with the bank’s Monetary Policy Committee report that a severe energy shock will also feed into wages and prices across the economy.

Food for thought: The Food and Drink Federation has put out a report calling for the government to provide the same support to its sector that other manufacturers receive — including help with energy bills.

Current affairs: Overnight the European Commission suggested countries in the EU cut taxes on electricity as a way to soften sky rocketing energy prices. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said: “In some cases, electricity is taxed much more than gas, up to 15 times more. And this cannot be so,” Reuters reports.

Apt timing: This all lands during another day of Downing Street’s “cost of living tour.” While Keir Starmer is no longer due to take part with him, Communities Secretary Steve Reed is continuing with a planned visit to the south east and will record a pool interview and other clips. Hacks will also get a crack at the PM’s spokesman in the lobby briefing at 11.30 a.m.

Not talking rubbish: Environment Secretary Emma Reynolds will be answering how the government plans to handle the economic fallout as she does the morning broadcast round … while trying to talk up the government’s £45 million to tackle waste crime.

Nandy state: Helpfully, it sounds like the Cabinet colleagues have been chipping in with ideas. The Times reports Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy told this week’s Cabinet it was time to “rethink” the government’s borrowing rules to fund a potential cost‑of‑living bailout. The Treasury pushed back, saying ministers remain bound by “iron‑clad” fiscal rules that debt must fall as a share of GDP by 2029‑30 and day‑to‑day spending must be covered by revenue. This one could run for a while.

SET HEIRS RACING: Nandy is not exactly top of the list to challenge Starmer, but she is not the only high-profile Labour figure to generate headlines this week. Angela Rayner’s immigration broadside landed so hard it prompted The Times to sketch out what a Rayner government would look like.

And Wes Streeting … has been shoved back into the spotlight by the meningitis outbreak in Kent after a period off the grid. The health secretary has asked the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation to revisit its advice, while experts are looking at whether the virus has mutated. If this situation worsens (and hopefully it won’t), many people in the bubble and beyond will be watching how well Streeting proves himself in the role.

Coup, there it is? It’s worth noting that behind the scenes there are plenty of MPs saying Iran war makes it much harder to replace Starmer — as a serious party of government wrestling with a global crisis cannot afford a self‑inflicted succession fight. Longtime readers will remember the same argument was made for Boris Johnson and Ukraine, until it wasn’t.

On the horizon: The BBC’s Iain Watson reports those Labour MPs opposed to plans to double the wait for migrants to secure indefinite leave to remain are threatening to drag the party’s divisions into full view by forcing a symbolic vote, unless ministers retreat.

MANDELSON FILES

SCOOP — TRUMP TOLD YA: Senior members of Donald Trump’s transition team repeatedly tried to intervene to block Peter Mandelson’s doomed appointment as U.S. ambassador, my colleagues Daniel Lippman and Esther Webber report. Officials repeatedly requested Karen Pierce be kept in post. Interestingly, the team was mostly unhappy with how Pierce had been treated and comments Mandelson had previously made about Trump … not all the, y’know, Jeffrey Epstein stuff.

Wiles warning: According to two U.S. officials, Susie Wiles, Trump’s formidable chief of staff, was skeptical of Mandelson and allegedly branded him “arrogant” and rude to staff. The White House’s Anna Kelly disputed the characterization as “inaccurate.” Wiles gave no comment and Downing Street declined to engage.

STILL SPITTING OUT STORIES: The Telegraph’s Tony Diver reports that Britain’s Civil Service ethics chief twice offered to question Mandelson over his links to Epstein, but was rebuffed by Morgan McSweeney. Darren Tierney, then head of propriety and ethics in the Cabinet Office, proposed formal interviews before and after drafting the now‑famous due diligence report. According to the report, Downing Street sources did not dispute that Tierney made an initial offer, but denied a second offer was made. Asked by Playbook, a No. 10 spokesperson said the “process in place at the time for a political appointee was followed.”

The Conservatives have jumped on the row, with Alex Burghart claiming the revelations expose what he calls Starmer’s “appalling judgment and inability to stand up to his peers.”

THE CASE WIDENS: The police inquiry into Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor could expand beyond the misconduct in public office offense, the Times reports, with police insiders saying the disgraced former prince is set to be investigated over other potential corruption offenses. That’s in addition to a scoping inquiry into allegations of sex trafficking. He has not been charged and denies wrongdoing.

TODAY IN WESTMINSTER

IN THE LORDS: Peers will trudge in from 10 a.m. for Day 12 of Committee Stage on the assisted dying bill. It is the third‑from‑last chance to scrutinize it, and without a major change of course, both sides are conceding the bill is finished for this session.

DIVIDING LINES: Reform UK leader Nigel Farage called for mass Muslim prayer to be banned in public spaces, the Guardian reports, with the politician describing a gathering of hundreds of worshippers in Trafalgar Square as a “provocative demonstration” and a “warning to everybody.”

Former Scottish First Minister Humza Yousaf accused the Reform UK leader of “bigotry.” The row has been gathering pace since PMQs, when Keir Starmer urged Badenoch to fire Shadow Justice Secretary Nick Timothy, who started the kerfuffle by calling the mass public prayer an “act of domination and division.” NB, this is all coming as Muslims celebrate Eid-al-Fitr today.

THAT’S THE ANNIVERSARY PRESENT OUT THE WINDOW: Nigel Farage is now “unavailable” on the Cameo video platform, after the Guardian published a string of eyebrow-raising paid-for clips. A source told the Guardian that Farage had paused his use of the platform over security concerns.

BLEAK WARNING: The government’s aid cuts will lead to girls leaving school and children going hungry and result in the government being “remembered for the wrong reasons,” Labour peer and former Scotland First Minister Jack McConnell wrote in a piece for HuffPost.

COST OF LIVING CHECK! The Labour Party is paying digital comms agency 411 to persuade small-scale influencers to promote Keir Starmer’s cost of living message, Playbook’s own Bethany Dawson reports. When approached for their thoughts on the story, a Labour MP said they were “delighted to discover we have a comms strategy of any kind.”

NOW LISTEN TO THIS: U.K.’s AI Minister Kanishka Narayan has told Patrick Baker on this week’s Westminster Insider podcast there is a 50:50 chance AI as intelligent as humans could arrive in the next five years.

RISKY BUSINESS: The Ministry of Justice has admitted it has known for almost two decades that about a quarter of prison places are unsafe, the Guardian reports. The government has dropped its commitment to make all prison cells fire-safe or take them out of use by the end of 2027. A new date for the pledge has not been set.

GET THE MILI-BAND BACK TOGETHER: New Labour stalwart David Miliband is to lead IPPR’s Decade of Renewal panel, tasked with hunting for a modern successor to Tony Blair’s “third way.” Also on the panel are former Deputy Cabinet Secretary Helen MacNamara, Paul Nowak from the TUC and CEO of Labour Together Allison Philips .

GIVE US OUR CITY BACK: Britain’s Tories are on a mission to fix their wrecked reputation in the City of London, my colleague Elliot Gulliver-Needham reports. The Conservative Party used to sell itself as the party of bankers, but after being turfed from office in 2024 following 14 rocky years of rule, the financial sector’s been happy to shop around. It seems the Tories now want that title back.

PORTRAIT PALAVER: Despite all public bodies being eligible, only 2.8 percent of hospitals and 7.4 percent of universities asked for a free portrait of Charles III, GB News reports. Discussing the story on Chopper’s Political Podcast, Tory Leader Kemi Badenoch said: “All of this rubbish needs to stop.”

PRETTY PENNY: Labour donor Dale Vince is to pay “substantial” libel damages to Conservative peer Shaun Bailey after dropping his own claim regarding comments made on Times Radio, the Times reports.

TOY STORY: The Department for Business and Trade is safety testing AI toys (think furby with ChatGPT installed) my tech colleague Joseph Bambridge reports.

THINK OF THE CHILDREN: EHRC Boss Mary-Ann Stephenson told PA that a “particularly vulnerable child” is at the center of a controversial deportation case where Albanian criminal Klevis Disha successfully argued against his removal from the U.K., citing, among other things, his son’s aversion to foreign chicken nuggets.

THAT’S ONE TAKE: Financially illiterate parents are the reason for the student loan crisis, Conservative peer and former Treasury Minister Theodore Agnew told the Times.

SW1 EVENTS: The IFG hosts a webinar on fuel prices with former Gordon Brown adviser and BP strategy boss Nick Butler, IFG Senior Economist Dan Haile, Climate Change Committee CEO Emma Pinchbeck, and NESTA Sustainable Future Mission Director Andrew Sissons (10 a.m., details here).

HOUSE OF COMMONS: Not sitting. Got that Friday feeling.

BEYOND THE M25

OMAGH INQUIRY: The Omagh Bombing Inquiry sits from 10.30 a.m. in Belfast to discuss submissions for anonymity applications. The topic of identification has been a key discussion, with a barrister for the Police Service of Northern Ireland arguing Thursday that the five former Special Branch and CID officers could be seen as legitimate targets as a result of giving evidence without anonymity. ITV has the story.

ELECTION STATIONS: Former center-right French Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, who has become the far right’s main rival for the French presidency, is on track to win reelection as mayor of Le Havre, according to polling shared exclusively with POLITICO.

AGAINST THE TIDE: Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni broke ranks with much of the EU, telling her counterparts she understood the reasons Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán had angered the bloc by going back on his word and using his veto to deny Ukraine a €90 billion loan, five diplomats familiar with the confidential discussions told POLITICO.
Brussels Playbook has a good run-down of the late-night summit action.

INVASION PREPARATIONS: Danish soldiers who flew to Greenland in January were prepared to blow up airport runways over fears the U.S. could invade the Arctic territory, Denmark’s public broadcaster DR said. The report also suggests blood supplies were brought in to treat the wounded in the event of fighting, according to this BBC write-up.

PEARL OF WISDOM? Donald Trump joked about Pearl Harbor in a meeting with Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi. The BBC has a video of the awkward exchange here.

CHAGOS KA-CHING: U.S. President Donald Trump could buy the Chagos Islands if Britain’s deal with Mauritius collapses, American insiders tell the Sun’s Martina Bet. One official told Bet that the move “wouldn’t be the first course of action,” but said that if things get bogged down “and frustration rises, the White House definitely doesn’t see it as impossible.” His comments come only a week after Foreign Office Minister Hamish Falconer told the Sun a sale would not be possible.

ROWLEY ON TOUR: Met Police Commissioner Mark Rowley will meet Apple executives on Friday as he pushes tech giants to remotely turn stolen phones into “unusable bricks.” Rowley has given manufacturers a June 1 deadline to act before he’d call for a law change to force their hands.

MEDIA ROUND

Environment Secretary Emma Reynolds broadcast round: Times Radio (7.05 a.m.) … Sky News (7.15 a.m.) … BBC Breakfast (7.30 a.m.) … LBC (7.50 a.m.) … GMB (8.35 a.m.) … GB News (9.10 a.m.).

Shadow Crime Minister Matt Vickers broadcast round: Times Radio (7.45 a.m.) … GB News (8.10 a.m.) … LBC News (8.45 a.m.).

Also on Nick Ferrari at Breakfast: UKHSA Chief Scientific Officer Robin May (8.50 a.m.).

Also on Good Morning Britain: Labour peer and Iceland Foods boss Richard Walker (8.15 a.m.).

Also on Times Radio Breakfast: Robin May (8.35 a.m.).

Also on LBC News: Labour MP Linsey Farnsworth (7.45 a.m.).

TODAY’S FRONT PAGES

POLITICO UK: Inside Labour’s hunt for friendly influencers.

Daily Express: Inflation to rise in Iran war ‘shock.’

Daily Mail: Iran war unleashes mortgage shock for millions.

Daily Mirror: They saved us and NHS.

Daily Star: WAGatha Christie.

Financial Times: Markets tumble as investors price in ‘protracted energy shock’ from war.

Metro: Tina Returner.

The Daily Telegraph: Saudis threaten strikes on Iran.

The Guardian: New threat from Iran as fears grow of energy crisis.

The i Paper: World energy shock hits UK – with bill rises set to last for years.

The Independent: Stop this madness now, end this war before it’s too late.

The Sun: Hell’s bills.

The Times: Netanyahu: Iran’s regime won’t be toppled from air.

TODAY’S NEWS MAG

The Economist: Operation Blind Fury.

THANK POD IT’S FRIDAY

Westminster Insider: Host Patrick Baker dives into the overlap of AI and Westminster, speaking with AI Minister Kanishka Narayan … Labour MP Mike Reader … Conservative MP Luke Evans … Labour MP Dawn Butler … POLITICO’s Tech Editor Isobel Hamilton … and Control AI CEO Andrea Miotti.

EU Confidential: U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres tells POLITICO’s Anne McElvoy that there were “reasonable grounds” for thinking that both sides in the Iran conflict may have committed war crimes.

Plus — six of the best political podcasts for you to listen to this weekend …

Chopper’s Political Podcast: Host Christopher Hope speaks to Tory Leader Kemi Badenoch.

Politics Inside Out: Veteran Conservative MP Roger Gale, who has spent 43 years in parliament, reflects on life inside Westminster.

The Rundown: Former Chancellor Sajid Javid speaks to Alain Tolhurst about social cohesion, racism and Britishness.

Matt Forde’s Political Party: Labour MP Karl Turner speaks to host Matt Forde.

Leading: Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez speaks to Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart.

The Prospect Podcast: Former YouGov President Peter Kellner discusses polling, Reform UK and the Gorton and Denton election.

LONDON CALLING

WESTMINSTER WEATHER: The sun is shining, TFIF. High 16C, low 5C.

DINNER WITH THE BOSS: Keir Starmer has been hosting Chequers love-in sessions with his MPs since the beginning of the year, and the one thing that sparks furious debate is the food. The PM serves the same chili at each session, and reviews (very good and very bad) have been wafting from into Playbook’s WhatsApps. MPs, got an opinion? You know what to do …

EASY GIG: The Treasury is hiring a director of strategy and system change.

NOW READ: Polling guru John Curtice’s hot take for the BBC on why Labour’s Brexit focus has shifted from Leavers to Remainers.

WRITING PLAYBOOK PM: Emilio Casalicchio.

WRITING PLAYBOOK MONDAY MORNING: Sam Blewett.

BIRTHDAYS: Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper … SNP Chief Whip Kirsty Blackman … former Hartlepool MP Jill Mortimer … former Glasgow South West MP Chris Stephens … Labour peer and former EU foreign affairs chief Catherine Ashton… unaffiliated peer Peter Truscott … former Daily Express editor Hugh Whittow.

Celebrating over the weekend: former Welsh First Minister Carwyn Jones … crossbench peer Anthony Grabiner … Labour peer Llinos Golding … unaffiliated peer Brian Mackenzie … FT Associate Editor Stephen Bush … Reuters U.K. political editor Liz Piper … former Deputy PM Michael Heseltine … Hastings and Rye MP Helena Dollimore … Shadow Environment Secretary Victoria Atkins … former Clwyd West MP David Jones … former Skills Minister Robert Halfon … Tory peer John Nash … Tory peer Elizabeth Berridge … former U.K. Ambassador to Yemen Michael Aron … Labour peer Alicia Kennedy … Crossbench peer Deborah Bull … retired Tory peer Andrew Lloyd Webber … and More in Common’s U.K. Director Luke Tryl.

PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editors Dan Bloom, Alex Spence and James Panichi, diary reporter Bethany Dawson and producer Hugh Kapernaros.

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