Good afternoon,
Sir Keir Starmer’s dwindling circle of allies has pushed back against Angela Rayner’s criticism of what she called his “un-British” Indefinite Leave to Remain policy. In truth, Two-Tier had little room to manoeuvre – having personally authored the foreword to the white paper on “Restoring Control over the Immigration System.”
Yet, it is Rachel Reeves who appears increasingly exposed, with Rayner, Miliband and Burnham all lining up to challenge the Chancellor on her own turf.
Annabel Denham, Senior Political Commentator
Reeves faces war with Labour’s big beasts
Chancellor Rachel Reeves looked broken at Prime Minister’s Questions in July
To listen to Sadiq Khan today, you’d think it was 2020. The Mayor of London has declared that “the evidence is overwhelming: Brexit has been a disaster for London and the UK”. According to Khan, rejoining the EU is now “inevitable”, which will come as news to the millions who voted the other way and the large number who’d really rather that politicians focused on the present.
When pressed on the morning media round, trade minister Sir Chris Bryant – despite having repeatedly and proudly announced the signing of trade agreements which would have been impossible had we remained in the Brussels straitjacket – complained that voters were sold a “pack of lies” in 2016. Unlike in 2024, of course.
The problem for Starmer is that the Brexit argument was supposed to be dead and buried, one with Nineveh and Tyre. However, such is the shambolic state of his premiership and his fear that the Greens are scooping up younger pro-Europe voters, that the temptation to refight old battles may prove too strong.
Already, the party is splitting along predictable lines, with Labour MPs in Leave-heavy seats pushing back hard. Natalie Fleet, MP for Bolsover, has since said: “While London may want to rejoin, areas like mine that voted 70 per cent to leave definitely do not.” whilst Josh Newbury, MP for Cannock Chase, put it bluntly: “Absolutely not.”
This is awkward enough for Two-Tier, who once campaigned for a second referendum but has promised to leave Brexit behind. Yet it could be even more uncomfortable for Rachel Reeves, who now looks extremely vulnerable. On Tuesday our weakened Chancellor reiterated Labour’s supposed “red lines” – no Single Market, no Customs Union – only to see her colleagues trample over them hours later.
While civil war threatens to ignite within Labour over yesterday’s referendum, the markets are focused on tomorrow’s balance sheet, and they’re spooked. The Bank of England decided this week to hold interest rates at 3.75 per cent, with not a single member of the Monetary Policy Committee voting for a cut. Investors are bracing themselves for further tightening later this year. Unsurprisingly, with no end to the Iran conflict in sight.
The monetary eggheads are facing up to what Reeves is pretending isn’t happening. Her Mais Lecture this week was meant to reassure, to set out a credible path through the looming energy crunch and the fiscal squeeze, yet it largely sidestepped the hard questions.
Rachel Reeves promises ‘growth in every part of Britain’ in her Mais lecture at the Bayes Business School in London on Tuesday Credit: Yui Mok/PA
There was no convincing explanation of how Britain will cope with rising energy costs, no serious engagement with the structural weaknesses that continue to hold back growth, and no sense that the Treasury has designed a fiscal response, should conditions deteriorate further.
Ed Miliband continues to dominate the economic conversation through his dogmatic energy policy. This afternoon he posted an imaginative video on social media setting out the “five things we’re doing to help tackle the cost of living”. Like Andy Burnham before her, Angela Rayner is taking pot-shots at the Office for Budget Responsibility and the fiscal orthodoxy to which Reeves has been such a loyal acolyte. Under PM Rayner, is the implication, Labour would be far more willing to borrow and spend on the assumption that growth would follow. Red Ange probably has fairies at the bottom of one of her gardens.
Inside the Westminster beehive, it’s hardly a secret that the Parliamentary Labour Party is less than impressed by Reeves. As one senior figure says: “they wanted another Gordon Brown. Instead they got another Anneliese Dodds”. Starmer is dimly aware of this, and the temptation to reshuffle or replace Reeves may yet prove irresistible, though I expect her to survive until after the expected battering in the local elections. He won’t chuck her out till May be out.
The Chancellor has tried to keep her head down, and project loyalty and discipline, but the strain between Number 10 and Number 11 has been obvious for months – ever since Reeves was caught having an emotional moment in the Chamber. “Starmer and Reeves have lost virtually all support. There is nobody in control and no discipline on what is being said by anyone. The only discernible trend I can see out of this mess is being bolder on a change of policy to rejoin the EU,” said one Labour MP. All of which would be bad enough, before you even get to the economic consequences of reopening Brexit. What a good job this is not the Nasty Party.
Reeves charts a course for ‘April Armageddon’ ➤
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