What’s driving the day in Westminster. Politics and policymaking in the UK capital.
By EMILIO CASALICCHIO
with NOAH KEATE
Good afternoon. This is Emilio Casalicchio.
THURSDAY CHEAT SHEET
— The official COVID probe painted a damning picture about NHS cuts in the decade before the pandemic.
— Keir Starmer has been doing lots of talking about war as fuel sites in the Middle East go up in flames.
— The next batch of the Mandelson files is not expected to be published until after Easter.
— The Conservative line about a Muslim gathering in Trafalgar Square continues to confuse.
— SCOOP: The Tories changed the locks on the office of a Reform defector.
TOP OF THE NEWSLIST
WHO’D A THOUGHT IT? Squeezing the NHS budget in the decade leading up to the Covid pandemic left the health service at risk of collapse when the crisis hit, according to the latest report from the official probe into the disaster.
Sick note: The 400-page report into how the health machines in all four U.K. nations coped paints a damning picture of an NHS struggling to grapple with sudden demand following cuts under the Conservatives. Limited hospital spaces, inadequate equipment, plus staff vacancies and absences left the healthcare regimes in “a precarious position.” There’s a short version, too, and a video of quick hits.
Heather (with thorns): Pandemic inquiry chair Heather Hallett said in a statement that the NHS “coped, but only just,” with services “overstretched and understaffed” beforehand and patients unable to get the care and support needed as a result. Watch it here.
Bear in mind: After hours of public hearings, poring over evidence and digesting claims and counter-claims, these final reports into each inquiry module are the best Brits are ever going to get in terms of a conclusion on the pandemic response and what we might learn for next time. So it’s worth paying attention.
The findings: Government health spending in the run-up to the pandemic rose by only a small amount, the report says – despite compounding demand from an aging population and an increase in long-term conditions. “It is vital to record just how close these healthcare systems came to collapse” as a result, the inquiry team says. “That collapse was only narrowly avoided because of the extraordinary efforts of all those working in the healthcare systems across the UK, who carried the burden of caring for the sick and dying in unprecedented numbers.”
And so … Covid patients and people with other conditions failed to get required care, due to long waits for ambulances, beds, equipment and attention — not to mention disruption to crucial services like cancer screening and the cancellation of non-urgent care.
More knock-on effects: The report says the whole “stay at home, protect the NHS, save lives” messaging from the government (designed to prevent the healthcare regime being overwhelmed) suggested facilities were closed, and actually led to people not seeking healthcare to avoid being a burden. And it says shortages of protective equipment for healthcare workers left staff treating patients in “inadequate” conditions — not to mention suffering burnout and post-traumatic stress.
On the to-do list: The report makes 10 recommendations, including extra capacity in urgent and emergency care (with scope for surge capacity) … more powers for infection control watchdogs … better data collection on individuals at risk and healthcare worker deaths … standardized advance care planning … better support for healthcare workers to stop them leaving the service … and guidance for decision-makers to use during crises.
The reaction so far: The Covid-19 Bereaved Families for Justice group said “years of austerity left the NHS dangerously exposed” and branded the funding squeeze “a political choice.” It said the health service now is “in a worse position to cope with another pandemic” and that the government must “use this report as a catalyst for change.”
No word at the mo from: Conservative spending-squeeze fans David Cameron and George Osborne … nor from pandemic-era PM Boris Johnson and his Health Secretary Matt Hancock. All four have been contacted for comment.
The official response: “This government is committed to learning the lessons from the Inquiry and ensuring the NHS and the social care sector are prepared for a future pandemic,” Keir Starmer said in a written statement to parliament. “It is clear that the NHS and the social care sector remain under pressure across the UK, and in many cases healthcare services are still recovering from the pandemic. This government is committed to investment and reform to build a health service in England that is fit for the future and there for people when they need it.”
On which note … Health Secretary Wes Streeting has been in Canterbury today overseeing the vaccine rollout to students amid the meningitis outbreak. There were six new confirmed cases this morning. The BBC is running a liveblog.
DRIVETIME DEBRIEF
MEANWHILE, IN WAR: Keir Starmer has been chatting to Emmanuel Macron and Mark Rutte (again) plus Gulf leaders (readout not online ATM) as the crisis in the Middle East intensifies. He also issued a joint statement with fellow nervous nations about the fuel chaos the Donald Trump war is creating, after holding a COBRA on the issue with Cabinet colleagues this morning. The team discussed contingencies to protect consumers, including on rising household bills and airlines cranking up ticket prices.
Not helping: Israeli media has reported that the Haifa oil refinery in Israel has been damaged, following an Iranian missile strike — after Israel hit the South Pars gas site in Iran. There are also reports of Iran striking the Mina Al-Ahmadi oil refinery in Kuwait, and gas prices rocketed following an attack on Qatar’s Ras Laffan energy complex. The BBC has a liveblog, and has been reporting on the latest Trump comments from a meeting with Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi in the White House. The U.S. president insisted the war is “ahead of schedule” and said his country has no plans to send troops in.
Closer to home: Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides said the two U.K. armed forces bases on the island are a “colonial consequence” and there should be talks on their status and future. Downing Street insisted Britain is working wonderfully with the Cypriots. Nothing to see here!
STILL WAITING FOR STUFF: The next batch of the Peter Mandelson files is not expected to be published until after Easter, my colleague Dan Bloom writes, due to various logistical challenges including the late retrieval of WhatsApp group messages … while the long-awaited defense investment plan also isn’t expected to appear before the break, our Esther Webber texts in to say.
RACH AND PAINS: Peers struck down the controversial Rachel Reeves plan to direct where pension schemes invest, amid outrage from the sector. More here from my POLITICO Financial Services U.K. colleague James Fitzgerald.
PRAYING FOR THIS TO GO AWAY: Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch sustained the confusion about her frontbench colleague Nick Timothy during her local campaign launch this morning.
Reminder: The shadow justice secretary argued mass public prayer is an “act of domination” after an Islamic prayer event in Trafalgar Square. Asked this morning whether her own objections are about gender segregation at the event (which she claims was Timothy’s objection) or about Islamic public prayer (which Timothy has been clear was his objection) she said “both are right.”
Good to get it all cleared up: In numerous interviews after the launch, Badenoch maintained that Timothy was complaining about women being pushed “to the back” at the event — despite that not being his complaint. “I agree with him on the domination of public spaces, and how that happens is when people are excluded, when activities are being carried out, that other people are not welcome to join,” she told Sky News. Clear?
Elsewhere at the campaign launch … Badenoch attacked her opponents with a memorable line: “Some people want more benefits with Labour. Some people want nationalization with Nigel Farage. Some people want bigger boobs with Zack Polanski. That’s fine. That’s what they want. We’ve got a better offer. We offer those who want jobs and opportunity, those who want society to judge people based on merit.”
Britain needs YOU latest: The Tory leader told Times Radio strong members of the public should tackle shoplifters.
Now read this: My POLITICO colleague Elliot Gulliver-Needham has a good piece about how the Tories are fighting for a hearing in the City of London again, after the Liz Truss debacle.
STATE OF THE NATION 1: The Bank of England held interest rates at 3.75 percent and warned that war in the Middle East might derail hopes about future cuts, due to expected higher inflation. Dang.
State of the nation ii: The unemployment rate hit 5.2 percent between November and January — a slight uptick on the previous quarter — while wages grew at 3.8 percent excluding bonuses and 3.9 percent including bonuses, according to official stats. The Tories said the worklessness stats were “the predictable result of bad decisions and economic incompetence.”
State of the nation iii: Civil service headcount was up 1,000 in the three months to December and up 7,000 compared with December 2024 — with extra HMRC officials and more legal officers contributing the biggest increases, according to official figures. But the Cabinet Office saw the biggest fall in headcount across government, with 855 officials gone in the three months to December (a 13 percent drop), while the justice department lost 460 staff, the Foreign Office 365, and the environment department 350.
NOT NOW, SADIQ: Sadiq Khan called for Britain to return to the single market and customs union during the current parliament, and Keir Starmer’s response will … probably not shock you. “The government red lines as set out in the manifesto stand,” a spokesperson for the PM told hacks. Those red lines include no return to the single market and customs union. Duh. Full writeup here. Khan has elections to oversee in anti-Brexit London, remember.
WHAT THE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: Its big new steel plan — including a whopping 50 percent import tariff which the government insists is not about protectionism but is a response to MAGA tariffs plus Chinese dumping. Sky’s Ed Conway has a must-read piece about what these tariffs mean for the U.K. The government also announced a deal with Nigeria (president Bola Ahmed Tinubu is on a state visit to the U.K. right now) for the nation to use British steel while regenerating two ports. Details here.
What else the government wants to talk about: Probation reforms, including a big expansion of tagging, plus extra supervision for dangerous offenders and more probation staff. Ministers also want to talk about an extra £5 million for the CPS to better support domestic abuse victims.
WHAT THE GOVERNMENT IS LESS EAGER TO TALK ABOUT (AT LEAST TO LEFTIES): Britain will reduce its aid to Africa by more than half as part of plans to reshuffle what’s left of the development budget after moving a huge chunk into defense. Labour MPs are (surprise, surprise) not impressed. Mozambique and Pakistan are also among the biggest losers from the cuts, but Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper told the Commons cash for Ukraine, Palestine, Lebanon and Sudan will be “fully protected” next year. The BBC has a writeup. Aid Minister Jenny Chapman is speaking at RSA House tonight.
LATEST VOTE OF CONFIDENCE: “After the May elections there will be a move to change leader because I think Labour are going to pretty much be decimated in those elections,” Unite boss Sharon Graham told Sky News this morning, after the union voted to cut funding to the party. But Graham also said Angela Rayner took an “abhorrent” approach to the Birmingham bin strike as communities secretary — something the union kicked her out for. So it seems no-one at the top of Labour is in the Unite good books right now.
Speaking of Rayner … her speech this week attacking the government and its immigration plans has gone down like a pint of warm urine among some Labour MPs, as the i’s Will Hazell and Arj Singh report.
SOCIAL (MEDIA) AFFAIRS
RISKS OF CAMEO: The latest Guardian hit on Nigel Farage and his Cameo side-hustle is about the failed digital currencies he’s taken cash to promote. The videos are quite amusing, and illustrate how bleak crypto culture is, to be honest. There’s also a writeup on Farage referring to Welsh people as “foreign speakers.” Welsh Labour was all over that one.
THE STATE VS. A CORNER OF THE INTERNET: Media regulator Ofcom fined 4chan £450,000 for failing to adhere to age check requirements, plus another £70,000 for other online rule breaches. The site responded with an image of a hamster, no doubt confident that its audience use VPNs already, so a ban in Britain won’t make much difference. Full writeup here.
MADE FOR POLITICAL X: Watch the Tories fumble with a video clip at their local elections launch event, before giving up. Clip here.
BEYOND THE M25
SCOOP — THIS LOCK IS NOT FOR TURNING: Reform defector Andrew Rosindell has been shut out of his beloved Margaret Thatcher House headquarters by the Conservatives, my POLITICO colleague Sam Blewett writes in. The Tories had been in a protracted legal dispute with Nigel Farage’s recent recruit ever since he jumped ship. That came to a head when Rosindell’s staff arrived at the Romford HQ this morning to find themselves shut out, according to a Conservative official. The Tories had sent round the locksmiths in the dead of night.
Rozza, Rozza, Rozza, out, out out: CCHQ had written to Rosindell asking for the legal basis for his continued occupation of the premise about a month back — but say they never received a reply. “As a result last night the locks were changed at Margaret Thatcher House,” the Tory official said. No word yet on whether Rosindell will fight on.
NORTH OF THE BORDER: Reform UK pledged to cut the number of MSPs from 129 to 113 by reducing Scotland’s 73 constituencies to mirror Westminster’s 57. Launching the party’s manifesto, Reform’s Scotland leader Malcolm Offord also pledged to slash income tax by aligning with the U.K.’s bands and going 1p below each. The Scotsman has more.
Er, what? Runcorn and Helsby MP Sarah Pochin said at the same event that she wanted to “come on in a Reform tartan burka but apparently I just wasn’t allowed,” adding “one day, let’s have one of these events that aren’t livestreamed. We’ll do all the naughty stuff.” Naturally, Labour has leapt on her comments, which Pochin defended.
ROAD TO NOWHERE: Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have stalled, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said, stating “the three-way group is on hold.” More here. Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán is meanwhile refusing to drop his opposition to a €90 billion loan to fund Ukraine’s war effort, as my colleagues have live blogged.
IN CHAD: President Idris Mahamat Déby ordered the military to retaliate against future attacks from Sudan after a drone attack on the border town of Tiné killed at least 17 people and injured several others attending a funeral. The BBC has more.
TONIGHT’S MEDIA ROUND
LEADING THE NEWS BULLETINS: Channel 5 News (5 p.m.) leads on the meningitis outbreak … BBC News at Six and ITV Evening News (6.30 p.m.) focuses on the economic impact of the war in Iran … as does Channel 4 News (7 p.m.), which has interviews with Israeli President Isaac Herzog and Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand.
Tom Swarbrick at Drive (LBC, until 6 p.m.): Former Conservative Muslim Forum Chair Mohammed Amin (5.05 p.m.) … UK Health Security Agency Chief Scientific Officer Robin May (5.35 p.m.).
Drive with John Pienaar (Times Radio, until 7 p.m.): Tory Leader Kemi Badenoch … Energy Security and Net Zero Committee Chair Bill Esterson … Reform UK Deputy Leader Richard Tice … former U.S. Department of State Middle East adviser Aaron David Miller … former U.S. Deputy National Security Adviser James Franklin Jeffrey.
Kevin O’Sullivan (Talk, until 7 p.m.): Former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Philip T. Reeker (5 p.m.) … retired British Navy Officer Chris Parry (5.20 p.m.) … Tory peer and pollster Robert Hayward (5.30 p.m.) … Tory peer John Redwood (6 p.m.).
BBC PM (Radio 4, 5 p.m.): Labour MP Simon Opher … former George W. Bush energy adviser Bob McNally.
News Hour (Sky News, 5 p.m.): International Maritime Organization Secretary General Arsenio Dominguez (5.30 p.m.) … University of Cambridge academic Roxane Farmanfarmaian (6.30 p.m.) … Georgetown University in Qatar Associate Professor Paul Musgrave (6.40 p.m.).
Tonight With Andrew Marr (LBC, 6 p.m.): Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey … former Gordon Brown adviser Nick Butler.
Farage (GB News, 7 p.m.): Warwickshire County Council Leader George Finch … former Tory minister Tom Pursglove … former Brexit Party MEP James Glancy … former Labour adviser Matthew Torbitt.
Politics Hub (Sky News, 7 p.m.): Kemi Badenoch … Care Minister Stephen Kinnock … Labour peer Luciana Berger.
The Evening Edition with Kait Borsay (Times Radio, 7 p.m.): Former U.S. Deputy National Security Adviser K. T. McFarland (8 p.m.).
Cross Question with Iain Dale (LBC, 8 p.m.): Tory peer Rachel Maclean … Fire Brigades Union General Secretary Steve Wright … former Tory adviser Leon Emirali.
Jacob Rees-Mogg’s State of the Nation (GB News, 8 p.m.): Labour peer John Cryer … former Tory MP Robert Goodwill.
Question Time (BBC Sounds and iPlayer 9 p.m. and BBC One, 10.40 p.m.): Health Secretary Wes Streeting … Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Helen Whately … Lib Dem President Josh Babarinde … Reform UK Head of Policy James Orr … former Green MP Caroline Lucas.
Patrick Christys Tonight (GB News, 9 p.m.): Tory peer Shaun Bailey … former Labour adviser Matthew Laza.
Newsnight (BBC Two, 10.30 p.m.): Labour peer Stewart Wood.
Late Show Live (GB News, 12 a.m.): Republicans Overseas UK Chair Greg Swenson.
TWEETING TOMORROW’S PAPERS TONIGHT: Alfie Tobutt.
REVIEWING THE PAPERS TONIGHT: Sky News (10 p.m.): Labour peer and broadcaster Ayesha Hazarika and Reform UK commentator Tim Montgomerie … Times Radio (10.30 p.m.): HuffPost’s Kevin Schofield and former Tory MP Julie Kirkbride.
WHERE TO FIND BOOZE IN WESTMINSTER TONIGHT
LOOKING FOR … BOOZE? AI Minister Kanishka Narayan, Reform UK MP Danny Kruger and Shadow Business Secretary Andrew Griffith join a Looking for Growth event from 6 p.m. Details here.
LUBRICANT FOR STRANGERS: Campaign Group the Fairness Foundation is hosting a 6.30 p.m. event in Strangers’ Dining Room to launch its report about reining in aspects of capitalism.
TOMORROW’S WORLD
HAPPENING OVERNIGHT: The Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Committee publishes a report on coastal erosion … while the Public Accounts Committee publishes a report into data on error and fraud.
WHAT THE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: People sneaking into football matches, action on waste crime and high streets.
IN THE COMMONS: Just the speaker’s chair. Back on Monday.
IN THE LORDS: Peers trundle in yet again for the 12th committee stage debate on the assisted death bill.
ANY OTHER BUSINESS
SPOTTED: Chief Whip Jonathan Reynolds and former Labour (then Change UK) MP Chuka Umunna having a wander and a chinwag in St James’s Park.
HAIR APPARENT: Long-serving Nigel Farage aide Gawain Towler told BBC Radio 5 Live’s Matt Chorley Richard Tice has a nickname in Reform circles: The Hairdresser. “Hair care is an important part of his daily routine,” Towler said about the Reform second-in-command. “I’ve had heard he borrows hairspray.”
SO LONG, FAREWELL: The Palace of Westminster will bid farewell to those people in orange suits who tell cyclists to slow down while riding through the estate, the Mail reveals. The traffic marshals will be replaced with more barriers, speed humps and signs. It’s a win for Conservative peer Robert Hayward, who has long campaigned on the issue on cost grounds.
NOW HIRING: LBC is hiring a political correspondent on a fixed term 12-month contract. The full details are here.
MEA CULPA: Defra’s clean-up squads as mentioned this morning are part of the Waste Action Plan, rather than the Environment Agency’s 10-point plan.
WHAT I’VE BEEN READING: The Will Lloyd essay in the New Statesman about the Ukrainian war machine.
PACKED LUNCH OR PALACE LUNCH: Subject to change, here is the one menu on the estate tomorrow we could get hold of: The Debate: Chili beef brisket jacket potato with beer and cheese sauce; sesame miso eggplant and tofu with brown rice, pak choi, edamame beans and ponzu; Jamaican smoked mackerel ‘run down’ stew with festival dumpling and hot sauce … The Terrace Cafeteria and River Restaurant will no doubt be offering fish and chips.
ON THIS DAY IN POLITICS: On March 19, 1649 the House of Lords was abolished for 11 years until the monarchy’s restoration in 1660. On the same day in 2003, airstrikes over Baghdad marked the start of the American and British-led invasion of Iraq … while in 2020 the Bank of England cut interest rates to 0.1 percent — their lowest since the bank was founded more than three centuries before. And in 2021, then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson received his first Covid-19 vaccine dose.
WRITING PLAYBOOK TOMORROW MORNING: Sam Francis.
THANKS TO: My editor Matt Honeycombe-Foster, reporter Noah Keate and the POLITICO production team for making it look nice.
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