Presented by Goldman Sachs
By EMILIO CASALICCHIO
PRESENTED BY
Good afternoon. This is Emilio Casalicchio in the press seats of the House of Commons, where MPs have been debating the war in the Middle East.
MONDAY CHEAT SHEET
— Keir Starmer is talking to allies about getting more involved in a war he doesn’t want to get more involved in.
— The PM unveiled a £50 million package to help hard-up heating oil customers.
— Richard Tice defended avoiding stacks of cash in taxes.
— A Danish politician did a Michael Gove and admitted taking cocaine.
— The BBC submitted its bid to have the Donald Trump case against it thrown out.
**A message from Goldman Sachs: Dive into the global economy’s most pressing issues in Exchanges, the award-winning podcast from Goldman Sachs. Tune in to conversations with analysts, traders, and firm leaders as they break down consequential shifts and trends from every corner of the globe. Listen to the Exchanges podcast from Goldman Sachs.**
TOP OF THE NEWSLIST
PRESENT BUT NOT INVOLVED: Keir Starmer is chatting to his European pals about how the Strait of Hormuz might be reopened … without getting sucked into Donald Trump’s war in Iran.
Make Hormuz Open Again: The PM told a press conference this morning Britain is discussing “options” with allies for a “viable, collective plan” to help the Americans protect oil tankers passing through the crucial shipping channel while insisting “we will not be drawn into the wider war.” But one of his ministers has been telling the Commons in the past hour how complex the matter is.
Indeed: The U.K. willingness to get involved in Hormuz is of course a response to rising oil prices as a result of the war — but it’s an illustration of how Britain risks slipping deeper into a conflict it didn’t want or cause. U.S. President Donald Trump has been begging/trolling/threatening allies (delete depending on the MAGA mood of the moment) to help him out — with his spokeswoman arguing again this afternoon that the U.K. is being too slow. But Starmer has been resisting as best he can.
Pat on the front: Cabinet minister Pat McFadden was out this morning insisting Nato has no obligations to Trump when it comes to Iran, since Nato is a defensive pact, not a tool to lend a hand to wars of choice. McFadden told Radio 4 the U.K. has to “see through” some of the Truth Social noise from Trump.
Fingers crossed, eh: At his press conference in Downing Street this morning, Starmer reiterated that he’s hoping for a de-escalation in the conflict, with aides making clear he said as much to Trump during their 15-minute phone chat over the weekend.
De-escalation latest: But despite not wanting to get “drawn into the wider war,” Starmer could commit waterborne minesweeping drones (which have been moved into the region already) and other counter-drone systems (also already in action in the Middle East) in a bid to reopen Hormuz. Officials are also in discussion with defense businesses about using interceptor drones like those Ukraine has deployed to counter Russia. But aides insist plans must be multilateral, with as many nations as possible taking part.
Indeed: Foreign Office Minister Stephen Doughty made similar points in the Commons during a statement in the past hour. He said the U.K. wants the strait open as soon as possible, since the Iranian attacks on tankers have “put a fifth of the world’s oil supply effectively on hold.” But he said opening the route is “not a simple task” and will need involvement from multiple nations. He said his boss, Yvette Cooper, was on the blower to her U.S. counterpart, Marco Rubio, at that very moment, and said she will deliver her own statement to MPs tomorrow.
What Starmer wanted to talk about: The PM called the press conference for two reasons. One was to convince voters he was right to avoid helping Trump with his Iran offensive and to contrast with the Tories and Reform, who argue he should have done the MAGA man’s bidding from the off. “That is not leading, it’s following,” the PM said. His second purpose was to reassure voters that he would watch out for their bills.
Starting point: Starmer announced a £52.4 million package to help hard-up heating oil consumers across the U.K. Details here — although the Lib Dems are arguing it’s not enough and a VAT break and price caps are needed instead. The PM also refused to rule out wider help with household fuel bills when caps end in June, and refused to rule out an extension of a 5p petrol tax relief set to end in September. But he said it was pointless to commit to plans about either at this stage, since events can change fast.
Nevertheless: Starmer banked the existing caps as an effort to help households through the crisis and said the government has issued a legal direction to fuel firms to ensure savings are passed on to consumers. He also made the case for the green energy transition to protect the nation against future fossil fuel shocks. “It’s moments like this that tell you what a government is about,” Starmer said. “Whatever the challenges, this government will support working people.”
Good comms: It was rare to see Starmer speak so clearly and in such plain English. He billed his points as five simple steps he’s taking to tackle the cost of living amid the war — and he managed to avoid committing news through the limited number of questions he took afterwards. Whether it improved his standing among a skeptical public is another matter.
Speaking of the questions: The PM, of course, took questions strictly from the list of reporters his aides told him to via an advance list — while ignoring the one hand up in the room from your Playbook PM author. No.10 was nevertheless brazen enough to use a shot of that single hand to give the false impression on social media that the PM is not a total control freak when it comes to his public appearances. See here from 6 seconds in.
But we digress: The main risk from a comms perspective is that Starmer ends up having overpromised to voters about protecting them — depending on how bad things get as a result of the Trump war.
Indeed: Former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt told Radio 5 Live this afternoon that absorbing voter costs is expensive and unsustainable. “We are going to have to wean ourselves off the habit because these global crises used to be very rare,” he said. “In the last 15 years, we’ve had the financial crisis, Ukraine, Covid. Now we’ve got the Iran crisis.” But weaning voters off government support has proved — to put it mildly — difficult.
DRIVETIME DEBRIEF
STILL TO COME: Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson will address the PLP on committee corridor at 6 p.m.
WHAT THE GOVERNMENT WANTED TO TALK ABOUT: The drive to get young people off TikTok and into work, which Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden unveiled in a speech this morning. There are some details here. Radio 4 nevertheless pressed him on the overall welfare bill continuing to rise and showing no signs of slowing.
SPEAKING OF BILLS: Reform second-in-command Richard Tice said Brits should stump up as little tax as possible, after the Sunday Times revealed his real estate investment trust wheeze, saving him some £600,000 in corporation tax between 2018 and 2021. Labour has accused him of “aggressive tax avoidance.” Tice complained at a press conference this morning that the nation has “entered a new world where there is a moral imperative now in the United Kingdom that you shouldn’t just pay tax as required … You must pay the maximum personal income tax rate on everything. That is a mad situation to be in.”
What Tice wanted to talk about: Reform is claiming it has saved more than £325 million across the 12 councils it now runs (while of course hiking council tax at the same time) and has earmarked a further £400 million in savings for 2026/2027. Let’s wait for proper and independent audits for the proof.
SPEAKING OF TAXES: Labour paid for a specialist barrister to scrutinize whether Angela Rayner paid the right stamp duty in the run-up to her resignation over the matter, Bree Allegretti revealed in the Times. The advice bill could have cost thousands of pounds, according to experts, prompting criticism that dwindling Labour funds were used. “Our membership is plummeting, trade unions are scaling back their support, we’re overspending, and we have critical elections,” a former senior Labour official told Playbook PM. “I think we need an explanation on why on earth we are paying expensive legal fees.”
Worth bearing in mind: Those around Rayner note that the Labour Party sought and enlisted the legal advice, and that she had no involvement in the matter.
RPC GAMING: The Tories and business groups are not pleased about ministers mulling whether to scrap a government watchdog focused on reducing red tape. The British Chambers of Commerce, the Confederation of British Industry and the Federation of Small Businesses were among eight groups that wrote to Business Secretary Peter Kyle, urging him not to dump the Regulatory Policy Committee, which assesses the impact of new regulations on firms.
Pleading, the Griffith: “At a time when British businesses, particularly our small high street enterprises, are drowning in red tape, removing one of the few bodies which holds ministers to account for the cost of regulation would be deeply damaging,” Shadow Business Secretary Andrew Griffith said in a statement. A government spokesperson said no final decisions on the RPC had been made, but that “we are overhauling the current complex system of regulation to reduce the burden on businesses through the action plan we launched last year.”
STARMER REPORT CARD: A former Conservative-voting cafeteria owner from Dover, who switched his allegiance to Labour and was pictured in its 2024 manifesto, offered a promising assessment for Keir Starmer about how the government is doing. Charlie Weale told Metro’s Craig Munro the two minimum wage increases (the second is coming in April) are constraining his business, but added: “If the latest Cabinet had Einstein, Isaac Newton and Stephen Hawking in it, they still wouldn’t have sorted it all out yet given the state of things.” He added that “what we don’t need at the moment is more upheaval by changing to someone else.” Music to the Starmer ear, in the circumstances.
STEEL REPORTING FOR DUTY: Trade Secretary Peter Kyle is expected to announce the U.K.’s long-delayed steel strategy at Tata Steel UK’s mill in Port Talbot on Thursday, my POLITICO Trade Pro U.K. colleague Graham Lanktree revealed this afternoon — alongside details about what the package is expected to include.
WAS IT EVER GOING TO CONCLUDE OTHERWISE? Former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said via his self-created Gaza Tribunal that the International Criminal Court should investigate U.K. ministers over the British response to the Israeli bombing in Gaza following the 2023 Hamas attacks in Israel.
BEYOND THE M25
ACROSS THE POND: Donald Trump said his Chief of Staff Susie Wiles was diagnosed with “early stage breast cancer.” Writing on Truth Social, the U.S. president said Wiles had an “excellent” prognosis and would remain in post while undergoing treatment. My Stateside colleagues have more details.
NOT OUR FIGHT: Kenya’s Foreign Minister Musalia Mudavadi said Russia had agreed to stop deploying Kenyan nationals to fight in the war in Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed all foreign fighters had joined voluntarily “in full compliance with Russian law.” The BBC has more information.
IN DENMARK: Liberal Alliance Leader Alex Vanopslagh admitted taking cocaine while serving as his party’s leader ahead of next week’s general election. “It happened once or twice at most in a festive setting — and of course, never while I was at work,” he wrote as his party polls third. My colleague Jakob Weizman has his words.
**A message from Goldman Sachs: Stay ahead of the curve with Goldman Sachs Exchanges, the firm’s flagship podcast featuring in-depth conversations with leaders from across businesses and regions. In each episode, leaders from across the firm break down the most consequential shifts in the global economy, providing clarity on the issues that matter most to business leaders, investors, and policymakers. From tracking global trade trends and market volatility to sector-by-sector and region-by-region breakdowns, tune in for the themes driving the biggest shifts in the global economy – and the implications for what’s coming next. Listen to the Exchanges podcast from Goldman Sachs.**
TONIGHT’S MEDIA ROUND
LEADING THE NEWS BULLETINS: Channel 5 News (5 p.m.), BBC News at Six and ITV Evening News (6.30 p.m.) focus on the meningitis outbreak in Kent … Channel 4 News (7 p.m.) leads on the war in Iran and has an interview with Tehran’s Ambassador to London Ali Mousavi.
Tom Swarbrick at Drive (LBC, until 6 p.m.): Former U.K.Defence Attaché to Russia John Foreman (5.05 p.m.).
Drive with John Pienaar (Times Radio, until 7 p.m.): Employment Minister Diana Johnson … former Gordon Brown adviser Nick Butler … former Joint Forces Commander Richard Barrons … former Bill Clinton adviser Jim Kennedy.
Kevin O’Sullivan (Talk, until 7 p.m.): Former Tory SpAd James Price (6 p.m.).
BBC PM (Radio 4, 5 p.m.): Crossbench peer and former U.K. National Security Adviser Peter Ricketts … Labour peer and government Cost of Living Champion Richard Walker.
News Hour (Sky News, 5 p.m.): Richard Barrons (5.30 p.m.) … Russia analyst Mark Galeotti (5.45 p.m.) … former U.S. Ambassador to Yemen Barbara Bodine (6.30 p.m.) …
Tonight With Andrew Marr (LBC, 6 p.m.): Diana Johnson … Lib Dem Leader Ed Davey … former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt … former YouGov President Peter Kellner.
Dewbs and Co (GB News, 6 p.m.): Labour MP Barry Gardiner … Reform UK Home Affairs Spokesperson Zia Yusuf.
Farage (GB News, 7 p.m.): Former Lib Dem Leader Vince Cable … former Reform UK Director of Communications Gawain Towler.
The Evening Edition with Kait Borsay (Times Radio, 7 p.m.): Independent Pharmacies Association CEO Leyla Hannbeck (8.15 p.m.).
Cross Question with Iain Dale (LBC, 8 p.m.): Shadow Defence Minister Mark Francois … Lib Dem MP Mike Martin… Your Party Parliamentary Leader Jeremy Corbyn.
Jacob Rees-Mogg’s State of the Nation (GB News, 8 p.m.): Tory peer John Redwood … former Labour MP Stephen Pound … retired Tory peer John Attlee.
Patrick Christys Tonight (GB News, 9 p.m.): Reform UK supporter and former Tory Chair Jake Berry.
Newsnight (BBC 2, 10.30 p.m.): Finnish President Alexander Stubb.
TWEETING TOMORROW’S PAPERS TONIGHT: George Mann.
REVIEWING THE PAPERS TONIGHT: Sky News (10 p.m.): Former Northern Ireland First Minister Arlene Foster and the Mirror’s Kevin Maguire … Times Radio (10.30 p.m.): The FT’s George Parker and the Sun’s Martina Bet.
WHERE TO FIND BOOZE IN WESTMINSTER TONIGHT
JUICED WITH JOURNOS: The women’s lobby reception is happening on the Terrace Pavilion, from 7 p.m.
TOMORROW’S WORLD
GETTING THE BAND BACK TOGETHER: Keir Starmer will chair a meeting of his Cabinet in the morning.
BETTING THE FARM: The High Court hears a two-day legal challenge from farmers about changes to inheritance tax rules.
LOWE DOWN: The High Court also hears a legal challenge between the leader of Restore Britain and Great Yarmouth MP, Rupert Lowe, and the Independent Complaints and Grievance Scheme about an investigation into him.
WHAT THE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: Local media, rail compensation and flood defenses.
WEAPONS-GRADE GRILLING: Ministry of Defence Permanent Secretary Jeremy Pocklington is among those probed by the Defence Committee about the department’s annual reports and accounts, from 10.30 a.m.
SUMMIT GOING ON: The EU-U.K. Parliamentary Partnership Assembly continues in Brussels, with the U.K. ambo to the EU speaking at 10.40 a.m. Full details here and livestream here.
HERE THEY GO AGAIN: Reform UK Leader Nigel Farage and his prize defection MP, Robert Jenrick, host a press conference at 11 a.m.
IN THE COMMONS: MPs wander in at 11.30 a.m. for justice questions, before a bill to increase the number of ministers on the government payroll is rushed through all its stages.
DARLING BUDS OF MAIS: Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivers her Mais lecture at 1.30 p.m. Watch it here.
STUCK IN THE MIDDLE EAST: Foreign Office Minister Hamish Falconer talks to the International Development Committee about Syria post-Bashar al-Assad, from 2 p.m.
IN THE LORDS: Peers clamber in at 2.30 p.m. for the third reading of the Victims and Courts Bill, a debate on the spring forecast and all stages of the second Finance Bill.
RENEWED HEAT: Energy Minister Michael Shanks faces the Energy Security and Net Zero Committee about the cost of energy amid the Donald Trump war in the Middle East, from 3 p.m.
ONE LAST GASP: MSPs will vote whether to approve or reject Lib Dem Liam McArthur’s assisted dying bill.
ANY OTHER BUSINESS
MEDIA NEWS: The BBC pitch for a U.S. court to throw out the Donald Trump claim against its Panorama programme about the Capitol riots landed here this afternoon.
A BBC spokesperson said: “We have said throughout we will robustly defend the case against us. Put simply — the documentary was never aired in Florida — or the U.S. It wasn’t available to watch in the U.S. on iPlayer, online or any other streaming platforms including BritBox and BBC Select. We have therefore challenged jurisdiction of the Florida court and filed a motion to dismiss the president’s claim.”
WELCOME TO THE WORLD: Norwich North MP Alice Macdonald gave birth to a baby boy.
WHAT I’VE BEEN READING: Polling experts Mark Pack and Peter Kellner on the Nigel Farage row with YouGov. On his Substack, Pack (a Lib Dem but dispassionate polling fan) said YouGov figures are indeed different, but “the reason is not a special anti-Reform bias” and confirms evidence across the board that Reform support has been slipping. For the New European, Kellner (a Labour supporter but dispassionate pollster) said Reform could be echoing the SDP in the 80s, which surged ahead in polls but fell back as voters learned more about their values and policies.
PACKED LUNCH OR PALACE LUNCH: Subject to change, here are the lunch menus on the estate tomorrow: Bellamy’s: Jerk pork with rice and peas; dill sea bream with carrot, radish and kohlrabi coleslaw, roasted pepper and caper salsa; thyme roasted portobello mushroom on potato and vegetable rösti with dried tomato and pine nuts … The Debate: Lime and cumin tuna with black bean and sweetcorn quinoa and tomato and avocado salsa; jerk pork with rice and peas: vegetable samosa chaat with chilli chutney and tamarind yoghurt … Terrace Cafeteria: Jerk pork with rice and peas; parsley, garlic and chive tempeh with mushroom and kale spelt risotto; fish finger sandwich with tartare sauce … River Restaurant:
ON THIS DAY IN POLITICS: On March 19, 1976, Harold Wilson announced his resignation as prime minister. On the same day in 2020, Prime Minister Boris Johnson told the public to stop all non-essential contact with others and work from home where possible. And in 2022, British-Iranian author Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe traveled back to the U.K. after being detained in Iran for six years.
WRITING PLAYBOOK TOMORROW MORNING: Andrew McDonald.
THANKS TO: My editor Luke McGee, reporter Noah Keate and the POLITICO production team for making it look nice.
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