Fire and fury – Mar 19 2026

Good Thursday morning. This is Andrew McDonald, enjoying the Mail’s tongue-in-cheek timeline of how the conflict in Iran will lead to Prime Minister Zack Polanski by July.

DRIVING THE DAY

ESCALATING: Whitehall is even more nervous than usual as it keeps an eye on events in the Middle East today, with the conflict at risk of spiraling out of control. Oil and natural gas prices had already surged following Israel’s strike on Iran’s giant South Pars gas field Wednesday afternoon … but how will markets react as the damage becomes clear in the wake of Iran’s retaliatory hit on one of the world’s most critical natural gas plants?

As you wake up today … the situation for the global economy is about as febrile as it has been since the conflict began. Iran hit the Qatari Ras Laffan liquified natural gas plant Wednesday evening in retaliation for the strike on its own gas field. Qatar — which until last night had actually enjoyed decent relations with Iran — said the plant suffered “extensive damage.” It’s exactly the scenario the global gas market “feared the most,” as one energy expert put it to Bloomberg.

And another: QatarEnergy confirmed overnight a second attack had taken place, causing sizable fires and “extensive further damage.”

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Fire and fury: In a Truth Social post that came late even in Washington’s time zone, Donald Trump said he had no advance warning of the Israeli strike that prompted the retaliation. He warned that if Iran attacks Qatar again, the U.S. will “massively blow up” the entirety of Iran’s South Pars Gas Field.

Back in Blighty: The U.K. receives hardly any of its LNG (liquified natural gas) from Qatar (about 1 percent in 2024). But the Gulf country supplies millions of tons of it to other Asian countries including China — and, as we’ve seen, the U.K. is exposed to the global markets. Prices will rise further if an energy shortage in Asia causes buyers to pay more to the U.K.’s suppliers to divert their tankers from Europe. We probably don’t want to compete with China for our energy.

Giving it strait: Energy shipments from the region were already suspended after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Britain is now sending a small team of U.K. military planners to the U.S. to help plan and develop ideas for how to get ships through the potentially mine-flooded strait, a senior military official told hacks. As it stands, Britain is unlikely to send Royal Navy ships to escort vessels while the conflict rages, and officials don’t expect other countries to do so either. Instead, its efforts are focused on what it can do if the situation calms down. It’s a big “if.”

And so … popping up on the morning media round shortly, in a bid to reassure Brits on their energy bills, will be Trade Minister Chris Bryant, while Yvette Cooper has a Commons statement planned this afternoon — though that is on foreign-aid spending allocations. Don’t be surprised if an opposition politician forces a UQ to argue this shows we need to drill, baby, drill in the North Sea. SNP Westminster boss Stephen Flynn was already making that point last night.

Also worth a watch: Questions on the law and government to Solicitor General Ellie Reeves at in the Commons 10.10 a.m., given the importance of international law to Britain’s positioning on the conflict.

Funnily enough: Bryant is actually doing the rounds to discuss another aspect of attempted U.K. economic independence on a crunch issue. The government has launched its steel strategy, which sees it levy a 50 percent tariff on many steel imports — as POLITICO reported was coming. Business Secretary Peter Kyle — who was out in Port Talbot on Wednesday — wants to see British steelmakers boost production to meet 50 percent of domestic demand. Hence why Sky’s Ed Conway dubs it “the biggest increases in trade barriers imposed by a British government in at least a generation.”

The insistence is … that the U.K.’s tariffs are being structured in a more sophisticated way than Donald Trump is doing with his sandwich board and that they mirror measures introduced by the EU. There are exemptions, and an official said it won’t hit products that aren’t made in the U.K. Either way though, it harks back to the “securonomics” pitch Rachel Reeves made in opposition and then revived Tuesday, and sees Britain laying protectionist measures aimed at curbing Chinese dominance of the steel market. Kyle will make a statement to the Commons this morning.

ALSO COMING TODAY: The Bank of England is widely expected to hold interest rates at noon. But watch out for the small print in its report released at the same time … which observers expect to nod toward the bank’s indication of what it thinks will happen with interest rate decisions later in the year.

ON THE HOME FRONT

DEVELOPING STORY: Keir Starmer promised just over a year ago to slash aid funding so he could increase defense spending — describing it as a “decision he didn’t want to make.” Today the impact of that uncomfortable pledge will be laid bare.

Aid for some: Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper will lay out the thinking behind the plans for its development budget in one of today’s many Commons statements, which will come at any point after 10.30 a.m. The detail of how Britain’s aid budget will be spent over the next three years will be published in a Written Ministerial Statement when she finishes speaking, along with an impact assessment on the government website. Development Minister Jenny Chapman is also making a speech at the Center for Global Development at 6.30 p.m., where very depressed aid charity representatives will be listening closely.

It’s gonna hit hard: Labour’s manifesto promised to restore development spending to 0.7 percent of GDP “as soon as fiscal circumstances allow.” Instead, today the impact of reducing it to just 0.3 percent will become clear.

Trump ain’t the only one who can prioritize: FCDO briefed that Cooper will announce that the chunk of aid spending that remains will be reprioritized into aid for Gaza, Ukraine and Sudan as countries with the “greatest humanitarian need.” The government will also promise to “integrate gender equality” into 90 percent of its aid programs by 2030. Cooper will be slashing the funds the U.K. directly sends to other countries, which makes up a huge proportion of current spending.

Losing out? As per this handy graph in the Telegraph, the countries below Ukraine to receive the biggest chunks of bilateral aid spending were Taliban-controlled Afghanistan … Ethiopia (where conflict still continues) … Syria … Somalia … and Yemen, also still subject to one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. Watch for which of the many countries around the world in dire need finds their funding cut today.

And so … expect a fair few glum faces on the Labour benches later. PA has comments from three MPs on the record warning the plans will put the world and U.K. at risk.

FUEL TO THE FIRE: The government is announcing how it will slash foreign aid at the same time as its MPs eye a scalp on Shabana Mahmood’s migration policies — after Angela Rayner jumped into the fray on that one earlier in the week. Government officials were insisting the position “hasn’t changed” as of Wednesday evening and that ministers were pressing ahead with plans to apply the changes on indefinite leave to remain retrospectively to foreign nationals already here. Even so, the government is leaving itself wiggle room, as Chris Mason notes in his Beeb column.

Expensive wiggle room: Watering down the plans would also mean draining the government’s coffers. Mahmood argued that failing to act on changing leave to remain rules for those already here as part of the so-called Boriswave would result in a “£10 billion drain on our public finances” paid for by working people. That is not small change.

Either way: Rayner’s intervention has set tongues wagging both on the measures and on her own ambitions, though not everyone is certain it helped on the former. “I wouldn’t be surprised if Angela’s intervention has made things worse,” a senior minister told my colleague Dan Bloom. “Shabana will look at this and think — I don’t want to be bounced into this.” Dan and Playbook’s Sam Blewett reported that the proposals had already been “shifting anyway” before Rayner’s speech.

But on Rayner’s own ambitions … it’s fairly clear they exist, whether its a desire to get back into Cabinet (as floated by Sam Coates on Politics At Sam and Anne’s Wednesday) or of the leadership variety. The Guardian’s Pippa Crerar and Sky’s Beth Rigby both report that Rayner’s allies are increasingly confident the inquiry into her tax affairs ain’t a problem, and will be resolved before the May elections.

Ooft: While over in the Telegraph, Tony Diver hears Rayner has been telling friends she wants to “take the party back.” Just by way of reminder, there are 50 days until local election results day.

AYE CORONA

THROWBACK THURSDAY: The Covid-19 pandemic might be firmly marooned at the back of your mind by now, but it will return to the headlines this afternoon as the still-rumbling-on Covid inquiry publishes its third report. Hacks will shortly be arriving to read the document under strict embargo conditions, before it’s published at noon. Inquiry Chair Heather Hallett will make a statement afterwards.

For a report about a pandemic that kicked off six years ago … it’s oddly timely. The inquiry will report on how the NHS and Britain’s health system infrastructure coped with the pandemic, at the same time as a meningitis outbreak raises grim memories of what life was like more than half a decade ago. And already the UK Health Security Agency, which was established in April 2021 to consolidate the under-fire Public Health England with other bodies, has come in for some criticism of its response to the outbreak.

But today: We’re gazing into the past. Playbook is told the 400-plus page report will cover the preparedness of the NHS for the pandemic … how the system coped with the pandemic and adapted during it … patient care in the pandemic … a big bit on PPE … and how staff coped with the horrors.

Predicting tonight’s headlines: The report will also weigh up the effectiveness of public messaging on the NHS from the government. It might have some stuff to say about how the OG “Stay home, protect the NHS, save lives” compared to the infamous “stay alert” configuration Boris Johnson introduced in May 2020. A guy called Robert Jenrick was actually sent out to defend that one at the time.

In terms of who could come in for criticism … former Health Secretary Matt Hancock will be nervously reading the conclusions at noon. But the risk for Starmer’s government of having any senior figures come under fire has been significantly lessened by former DHSC Permanent Secretary Chris Wormald’s unceremonious dumping from government. Other figures from Tory governments of the past — particularly Jeremy Hunt — could come under more fire for the state of the health service in early 2020.

But to be honest: Most of these guys have already been lambasted by the inquiry when it published reports one and then two. The inquiry has cleverly managed to attract headlines with critical and quite personal judgments of household names with its previous reports, but it’s hard to see what new material we could get on individuals given the thousands of pages it has already published and today’s focus on the internal workings of the health service.

Theories for Wesley: So otherwise, it will publish a shed load of recommendations on how to reform the NHS so it can cope better in the future, to go with the 24 it already made across the two reports it’s released so far. Which will give the health secretary something nice to read between briefings on meningitis. It wasn’t clear if we’d hear from Streeting after today’s report, but last time the PM himself responded … though this report is smaller beer than the last one.

Reminder: The inquiry — the cost of which has already run over £200 million — has finished its public hearings four years after it was set up. But it still has another six reports to publish before the whole thing is over, meaning another year of reports being published, according to inquiry officials. Set your diary (or don’t) for April 16, when the next report on the vaccine rollout will be published.

TODAY IN WESTMINSTER

ROWLEY IN DC: Conversations this week between Met Commissioner Mark Rowley and the U.S. Department of Justice are a preliminary move before a “formal process” can commence on requesting unredacted Epstein files involving Peter Mandelson, Rowley told POLITICO’s Erica Orden while in the States. “The norm is, if you’re working with a country, you think they’ve got some material relevant for your investigation, you tend to start with conversations, because otherwise you’re sending a [mutual legal assistance treaty] into — you’re sending it blind, really. So it tends to start with a conversation about what’s possible, what exists, what questions make sense to the recipient country, and then, and then it goes into the formal process. So we’re just working our way through that process.” He said he was satisfied by the DoJ’s willingness to cooperate so far.

As for what he’s looking for … Rowley told ABC News the Met is investigating a “potential criminal offence” concerning a specific email sent by Mandelson to Epstein in 2010. “There is a particular email to do with the bailout after the financial crash I think in 2008-09. It looks like it was shared with Epstein,” Rowley said.

LOVING EU: Mayor of London Sadiq Khan wants Labour to go into the next election promising the rejoin the EU, in an intervention that will mightily piss off No. 10. He told Italian newspaper la Repubblica that rejoining the bloc is “inevitable” and suggested we could rejoin without another referendum. The opposition will be trying to talk about that one today.

POLICING MINISTER’S POLICING PROBLEMS: Policing Minister Sarah Jones has revealed that her kids have had their phones stolen and that the police basically weren’t able to help — despite the fact she is literally the policing minister. She made the admission in a Sky interview as part of a special the broadcaster is running on the criminal justice system all day, including a program at 8 p.m. tonight.

TAKE A CHANCE ON ME: Launching the Conservatives’ local election campaign, Kemi Badenoch will insist that her party is the only one that “can actually fix things.” At the 10.30 a.m. launch in Westminster, the Tory leader will insist the party is renewed under her leadership and can “make life better” for voters. As a reminder, the Conservatives are set to face a hefty defeat in May.

And there will be inevitable questions for her on … Shadow Home Secretary Nick Timothy and his views on how Muslims praying in public amounts to an “act of domination.” Badenoch defended Timothy at Wednesday’s PMQs, but will no doubt be pressed again when she sits down for broadcaster interviews after the launch.

WHAT A WASTE: Local authorities may be given new powers to force fly tippers to clean up waste and pay fines without going through the courts, the government announced Wednesday. The move is part of a 10-point plan to be unveiled by the Environment Agency on Friday, aimed at tackling both low-level fly tipping and large-scale organized illegal waste crime. The BBC has a write-up.

SCHMOOZEFEST: The Lib Dems are hosting their own business day this afternoon, Playbook hears, with Ed Davey hosting representatives from the CBI and other business groups at a location near Euston. Pastries, canapés and white wine are on offer — plus an Ed Davey speech on how the Libs are the natural party of business.

LAST NIGHT IN THE LORDS: Peers rejected efforts to remove the decriminalization aspect of Labour’s reforms to abortion law in the Crime and Policing Bill in a tight late-night vote in the Lords. The decriminalization bit of the reforms was introduced by Labour’s Tonia Antoniazzi last year.

Talking of the Lords: Keir Starmer is unlikely to intervene to give the assisted dying bill more time in the next parliamentary session as he’s wary of causing more splits among his MPs, ministers tell the Guardian’s Jessica Elgot. One says Starmer “does not have the political capital” to make such a move. Which will be a source of discomfort for the pro-assisted dying side of the debate, which has been briefing hard that assisted death will never die — even with defeat looming in the Lords.

YOU’RE FIRED: The Hereditary Peers Bill is receiving royal assent this morning, officially ending the 700-year-old right of hereditary peers to sit and vote in the House of Lords. The legislation will come into effect at the end of this session of parliament, after which no one will be able to sit in the upper chamber just by hereditary right. Instead, they’ll need to be appointed into the chamber … as will shortly happen for current hereditary peers that are set to be offered life peerages under the compromise that got the Bill through the Lords.

SW1 EVENTS: AI Minister Kanishka Narayan, Reform UK MP Danny Kruger and Shadow Business Secretary Andrew Griffith join Looking for Growth’s event on the U.K.’s future, hosted with infrastructure company Valarian (6 p.m., details here).

REPORTS OUT TODAY: The U.K. needs a new model of capitalism that delivers “common good” economic and social outcomes, argues political economist Will Hutton in a Fairness Foundation report.

HOUSE OF COMMONS: Sits from 9.30 a.m. with environment questions … questions to Solicitor General Ellie Reeves … business questions to Leader of the House Alan Campbell … a general debate on progress in tackling climate change (led by Labour MP Luke Murphy) … and a debate on a motion on tackling online harms (Lib Dem MP Ian Sollom). Labour MP Luke Akehurst has the adjournment debate on government policy on discretionary increases for pre-1997 pensions.

HOUSE OF LORDS: Sits from 11 a.m. with questions on technological assistance for flood detection and prevention, resilience of rail infrastructure against future storms and floods, and refugee movements following Israeli military action against Hezbollah in Lebanon … and report stage Day 2 of the Pension Schemes Bill.

BEYOND THE M25

ELECTION STATIONS: Reform UK is launching its Scottish manifesto and unveiling its full list of constituency candidates at today’s Scotland conference. There’ll be keynote speeches from Nigel Farage and Reform’s Scotland Leader Malcolm Offord — but expect hacks to be focusing on the candidates … and carrying out some instant social-media due diligence. The conference runs from noon to 3 p.m.

And now read: Tim Shipman and James Heale’s 2,500-word deep dive in the Spectator on how the party plans to devour the Tories across the U.K., stuffed with new detail.

ALL ABOARD: The Treasury has allocated £3 million in funding for port infrastructure to try and get a proposed ferry service from Rosyth in Scotland to Dunkirk in motion. Scotland Secretary Douglas Alexander will be in Rosyth later.

BLOCKED: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is preparing to block a €90 billion loan for Ukraine at today’s European Council meeting — and it could be the red line when it comes to opposing Brussels, my POLITICO colleagues report. He’s setting up for a reckoning with the bloc that could come soon after the Hungarian election, five EU diplomats and one national European government cabinet minister said.

ARRESTED: The leader of one of Ecuador’s biggest drug-trafficking gangs, Ángel Esteban Aguilar Morales, has been arrested in Mexico City, officials say. Better known by the alias Lobo Menor, Morales was wanted in connection with the murder of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio in 2023, the BBC reports.

NO NEED TO SEND YOUR LOCATION: The FBI is buying up information that can be used to track people’s movement and location history, Director Kash Patel confirmed. Read more on POLITICO.

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MEDIA ROUND

Trade Policy Minister Chris Bryant broadcast round: Times Radio (7.05 a.m.) … Sky News (7.15 a.m.) … BBC Breakfast (7.30 a.m.) … Today (7.50 a.m.) … GMB (8.15 a.m.).

Conservative Party Chair Kevin Hollinrake broadcast round: Talk (7.20 a.m.) … Times Radio (7.45 a.m.) … GB News (8 a.m.) … Sky News (8.40 a.m.) … LBC (8.50 a.m.).

Also on Nick Ferrari at Breakfast: Unite General Secretary Sharon Graham (7.40 a.m.).

Also on Times Radio Breakfast: Sharon Graham (8.20 a.m.) … Labour MP Matt Bishop (8.45 a.m.).

Also on Sky News Mornings: Former British Ambassador to Israel Matthew Gould (7.40 a.m.) … Sharon Graham (8.30 a.m.) … former Foreign Office Minister and U.N. Deputy Secretary-General Mark Malloch Brown (9.15 a.m.).

Politics Live (BBC Two 12.15 p.m.): Labour MP Mike Reader … Shadow Crime Minister Matt Vickers … the Telegraph’s Poppy Coburn.

TODAY’S FRONT PAGES

POLITICO UK: Britain’s Tories try to fix their wrecked reputation in the City of London.

Daily Express: New row over weaker migrant plan.

Daily Mail: Iran wages ‘full scale economic war’ on the west.

Daily Mirror: Brit cops’ sex crime review of Epstein files.

Daily Star: Tech that.

Financial Times: Fed signals bid to cut rates on track despite oil price surge.

Metro: We warned of meningitis outbreak hell.

The Daily Telegraph: Starmer signals migrant U-turn.

The Guardian: ‘A dangerous escalation’: Israel strikes world’s largest gasfield.

The i Paper: Energy costs climb as Iran strike hits huge gas plant in Gulf.

The Independent: Overrun NHS totally unprepared for new Covid-level pandemic.

The Sun: Broke, deaf Glitter ‘on last legs.’

The Times: British military to help US form plan to reopen Strait.

TODAY’S NEWS MAGS

The Spectator: Nigel: will Reform devour the political class?

The New Statesman: The New World War.

LONDON CALLING

WESTMINSTER WEATHER: Still shining! High 17C, low 6C.

SPOTTED … at the parliamentary launch of the Next Gen Conservatives’ report “A New Radicalism:” shadow secretaries Claire Coutinho, Andrew Griffith, Richard Holden, James Cleverly, Mims Davies, ⁠Stuart Andrew and Andrew Bowie … shadow ministers ⁠Wendy Morton, Matt Vickers, Katie Lam and ⁠Paul Holmes … Conservative peers Mark Harper and Rachel Maclean … Conservative Party’s National Convention Chair Julian Ellacott … Tory Committee on Candidates Chair ⁠Clare Hambro and Vice Chair ⁠Elizabeth Gibson … Next Gen Tories’ ⁠James Cowling, ⁠Josh Smith and ⁠Luke Warren … former LGBT+ Conservatives Chair ⁠Luke Robert Black … LOTO adviser ⁠Jordan Kiss … Badenoch aides ⁠Fred Lynam and Liv Lever … Conservative Young Women Chair Samia Hersi … Conservative influencer ⁠Emily Hewertson … and hacks ⁠Alys Denby, William Atkinson and ⁠James Heale.

MEDIA NEWS: The BBC board is meeting to discuss filling its still vacant director-general role today, and the Guardian’s Michael Savage reports former Google exec Matt Brittin is the overwhelming favorite to be named as DG within days.

IT WASN’T ME: POLITICO took part in the H/Advisors Maitland media pub quiz last night … and came last out of eight teams. TBF, we had a small team. Reuters took first place, with Sky as the runner-up.

JOB AD: The Conservatives are hiring a director of digital.

MAKE SURE YOU GET THESE SPELLINGS RIGHT: The mayoral election for a tiny French town of Arcis-sur-Aube has gone viral, with Mayor Hittler going up against a man called Zielinski. The BBC has the spell-checked story.

NOW READ: The i’s Kitty Donaldson has a great read on how Trump and Starmer trading blows has impacted — or not impacted — on relations with the U.S.

WRITING PLAYBOOK PM: Emilio Casalicchio.

WRITING PLAYBOOK FRIDAY MORNING: Sam Francis.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO: Labour peer and Rail Minister Peter Hendy … non-affiliated peer Daniel Brennan … Scottish Lib Dem MSP Jamie Greene … opposition Deputy Chief Whip in the Lords Patrick Stopford … former Bury North MP James Daly … former Tory SpAd Ems Barr … the i Paper’s Arj Singh … the FT’s Rafe Rosner-Uddin … former Welsh Government Education Minister Kirsty Williams.

PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editors Alex Spence and James Panichi, diary reporter Bethany Dawson and producer Hugh Kapernaros.

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