By William Atkinson
Good morning. Oil prices have spiked further following an Iranian strike on a Qatari gas facility. The Bank of England is mulling interest rates, Keir Starmer is managing an Angela Rayner on manoeuvres and the King is heading to America. The Kent meningitis outbreak looks to be under control. As Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage address their party faithfuls, Labour ministers plot an attack on pheasant shooting, and more breweries complain about feeling the pinch. You’re reading Spectator Daily, here is everything you need to know today.
OIL PRICES SURGE AS IRAN STRIKES BACK
Iran has hit the world’s largest liquefied natural gas export facility in Qatar. The Ras Laffan facility was struck in two separate ballistic missile attacks, causing ‘extensive damage’ according to Qatari officials. The price of oil surged to over $110 a barrel at the news. Responsible for about one-fifth of global LNG supplies, the site has previously been targeted, but this strike follows Iran’s threat of retaliation to an Israeli strike on its South Pars gas field.
President Trump has said he ‘knew nothing’ beforehand about the Israeli strike, and threatened to ‘massively blow up’ the South Pars gas field if Iran launched further strikes on Qatar. Tehran earlier listed prominent sites belonging to Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, branding them ‘direct and legitimate targets’ that should be evacuated. Trump was also contradicted by Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence, who told Congress yesterday that Iran had abandoned its pursuit of a nuclear weapon following US strikes – a departure from the President’s claims. In this week’s Spectator, Christopher Caldwell suggests we are witnessing the end of Trumpism.
‘Remind me, Pete, whose idea was this?’
The Mail, the i Paper and the Times are among those whose front pages lead on the energy price spike, with the former suggesting Iran is waging ‘full scale economic war’ on the West. The spike comes just as the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee convenes to decide what to do about interest rates. The Bank was initially expected to cut rates this month but are now expected to mirror the US Federal Reserve’s decision yesterday and hold rates off on a further cut until it becomes clearer as to how long-lived the energy crisis will be.
Analysis from Citi predicts there is a 50 per cent chance of the oil price hitting $120 dollars a barrel in the coming days. The bank also warned clients that Brent crude could hit $200 if Iran conducts the sort of ‘broad energy infrastructure attacks’ it has threatened, or if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed until June.
Britain’s role in the conflict continues to evolve. The Times discloses that a small team of UK military planners has been to dispatched to US Central Command, responsible for American Middle East operations. Their job is to help develop ways of enabling shipping to transit the Strait of Hormuz. But the Telegraph suggests that the Royal Navy remains unwilling to send warships as Iran’s threat is ‘too fluid’. In this week’s leader, we argue for backing the US in finishing the job of regime change.
Still, a rare bit of good news for Anglo-American relations. The King’s three-day visit to the US will go ahead next month, despite tensions with Trump. Following a ‘recce’ to the US by a team of Charles’s closest aides, the Times reveals that the King will spend a single day in Washington DC, where he will pack in engagements including addressing Congress and a banquet, before a day in New York, a stop in a rural location, and a fourth stop at another country such as Bermuda with ties to Britain. Trump will aim to impress with a ‘display of US military might’.
‘And on that bombshell we’ll find out what happens to the oil price tomorrow.’
MENINGITIS AND SPY-CATCHING
Closer to home, health officials are reportedly increasingly of the belief that Kent’s fatal outbreak of meningitis has been contained. As of yesterday evening, no further cases had emerged not linked to the original cluster of 20. The Guardian suggests there is ‘growing confidence’ among public health officials that those infected in the Garden of England – many of whom visited a nightclub on 5, 6 and 7 March – have not passed it to those beyond the county. But hospital staff and GPs have been told to wear
masks and hundreds of students queued for vaccinations.
Meanwhile, two Iranian nationals have been charged with spying on Jewish locations and individuals on Tehran’s behalf. According to the Crown Prosecution Service, Nematollah Shahsavani and Alireza Farasati have been charged with ‘engaging in conduct that is likely to assist a foreign intelligence service’ under the National Security Act 2023. The charges involve ‘carrying out activities in the UK’ including ‘gathering information and undertaking reconnaissance of targets’ and have been explicitly linked to Iran.
York city councillors have proposed a motion to strip the Freedom of the City of York from Sarah Ferguson – the former wife of Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor. Awarded to the couple as a wedding gift in 1987, its possible removal is the only item on the agenda for an extraordinary council meeting scheduled for March 26. Guy Close, the council’s democratic services manager, has said that members of the public ‘will be given the opportunity to contribute’ and that there was ‘cross-party support’ for a motion put forward by the council leader.
Keir Starmer will today be meeting with Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the President of Nigeria. The usual pleasantries will be shared, agreements signed, and memoranda issued, with Tinubu expected to witness the signing of a £746 million UK Export Finance deal supporting the refurbishment of Lagos’s ports. After a trip to Windsor Castle yesterday, during which Charles and Camilla showed him items from the Royal Collection, Tinubu will delight in today’s reception in his honour at Tate Modern, hosted by David Lammy.
‘Whatever the wife says, one does so struggle with longer books.’
But all Labour eyes will be on Angela Rayner. Following her robust criticism of Shabana Mahmood’s ‘un-British’ immigration plans on Tuesday, today’s Guardian reports that ‘Rayner’s allies are increasingly confident that the inquiry’ into the former deputy prime minister’s tax affairs ‘will be resolved before the May local elections’. The ‘outstanding legal issues’ are ‘being ironed out by lawyers’ – ‘paving [Rayner’s] way for a full return to frontline politics’. Rayner also has a few tough words for the OBR.
Meanwhile, the Times suggests that plans to double the time migrants in the UK need to wait to qualify for permanent settlement ‘could be watered down to avert a growing Labour rebellion’. While Downing Street wants to stick to the overall policy following Rayner’s criticism, ‘transitional arrangements’ could be introduced to soften the impact on around 1.7 million people expected to qualify for settlement this year. The same paper’s Patrick Maguire suggests Rayner’s intervention wasn’t quite a leadership grab, but a showing of her strength.
‘Fancy going nightclubbing in Kent?’
But here’s something that Labour can unite over: good old-fashioned class warfare. The Telegraph reports that the Government is planning a ‘crackdown on pheasant shooting’ in its ‘latest attack on rural life’. Ministers will explore ‘licensing’ game-bird shooting and at putting restrictions on releasing pheasants and partridges, according to a new ‘land use’ strategy published yesterday. As Tim Bonner of the Countryside Alliance points out, shooting ‘contributes £3.3 billion to the economy’. Labour should beware of another attack on rural life.
Meanwhile, to Starmer’s Right, Badenoch and Nigel Farage will be putting the rocket boosters behind their respective parties’ campaigns ahead of local, Scottish and Welsh elections on May 7. The Tory leader will be launching her party’s local election campaign in London at 11 a.m.; Farage will be announcing his Holyrood candidates at Reform’s Scottish conference. In this week’s issue, Tim Shipman and James Heale explain how Farage hopes to squeeze the Conservative vote ahead of May – and swallow the party whole.
Coming up today
In the last few moments, the ONS has released figures showing unemployment is now at 5.2 per cent, a quarterly increase of 0.1 percentage points.
The third report of the Covid-19 inquiry, this time on the pandemic’s impact on the UK’s healthcare systems, will be released at 12 p.m.
Also at midday, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will announce their decision on the interest rate, for the first time since the outbreak of the Iran war.
THE WORLD BEYOND IRAN
Sanae Takaichi, Japan’s newly re-elected Prime Minister, will be visiting the White House today. This makes her the first major world leader – the Irish don’t count – to come face-to-face with the President since he demanded that leading powers including Japan help American escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Takaichi will be wary of being bounced by Trump into security commitments that Japanese voters would abhor, while seeking to remind the President of the dangers of China ahead of his delayed visit that Geoffrey Cain recently profiled.
Prosecutors are seeking more than seven years in prison for Marius Borg Hoiby, the son of Norway’s crown princess. Yesterday, in the penultimate day of his trial at Oslo district court, the prosecution claimed that he was guilty of 39 offences, including four charges of rape, domestic abuse, assault, drug and driving offences and breaches of restraining orders. After the trial’s final day, it could take several months for judges to decide.
A senior Russian official has warned that no region in his country ‘can feel safe’ as Ukraine increases long-range attacks. Sergei Shoigu, a former defence minister and current secretary of the country’s security council, said Kyiv’s strikes on Russian infrastructure had surged almost fourfold to 23,000 over the last year and were able to reach a growing number of distant targets. Shoigu also warned that long-range strikes could now reach beyond the Ural mountains – over 930 miles from the Russo-Ukrainian border.
Watch and listen
Freddy Gray and Robert Hardman discuss why the King should still visit the US on the latest episode of Americano.
With Milton Keynes into the finals for the UK’s 2029 City of Culture, here are a few clips from a 1993 documentary charting the city’s development.
For those sufficiently tired of one Tom Holland, the other swings into view in the trailer for the latest Spider-Man movie.
HOUSE AND PINT PRICES
Grim news for my fellow Gen Zers despairing of getting on the housing ladder. Just one in 15 first-time buyers is under 25, according to the latest home affordability index published by the Skipton Group. Only 6 per cent of first-home purchases are now made by this age group, compared with 23 per cent in the mid-1990s. The report also disclosed that more than half of first-time buyer households depend on at least two full-time incomes, up from 40 per cent in the mid-1990s, while the proportion of first-time buyers with children has fallen sharply to about a quarter.
But good news for those homebuyers with a bit more cash to spare. Hundreds of central London homes could go onto the market after the collapse of Market Financial Solutions – a £2 billion ‘shadow bank’ and lender. Having been accused of serious financial irregularities, the lender went into administration last month, with the suggestion that assets may have been pledged multiple times to ensure loans. With the collapse leaving an estimated £1.3 billion shortfall, selling over 250 properties in luxury London neighbourhoods may be necessary.
With energy costs soaring, pubs are feeling the pinch. Shepherd Neame – Britain’s oldest brewery – has become the latest to express concern over the impact of events in the Middle East. Chief executive Jonathan Neame told City AM he hoped the situation ‘stabilises quickly’, although he could still celebrate strong sales of the new ‘Iron Wharf’ stout. His comments follow Wetherspoon’s chief Tim Martin warning the Telegraph that energy costs could see food and drink costs inflated. It’s enough to drive
you to drink!
What we’re reading
Britain’s chance to escape America – Aris Roussinos
A very serious guide to buying your own humanoid robot butler – New Scientist
Polanski is right about one thing: breasts – Telegraph
The scourge of ‘lame news’ – Ed West
Trump hasn’t lost his voters over Iran – Wall Street Journal
And another thing…
A Sene-galling blow. Senegal has called for an ‘independent international investigation’ into ‘suspected corruption’ in the Confederation of African Football. This follows African football’s top body stripping Senegal of the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations title and awarding it to defeated finalists Morocco instead. Senegal’s players had walked off the pitch in a strop over the award of a stoppage-time penalty to hosts Morocco (which they then missed). Following an appeal by the Moroccan FA, it has been ruled that Senegal’s temporary departure from the pitch meant they had forfeited the match 3-0. No matter: Senegal say they are keeping the trophy.
‘We’re going home, and we’re taking our ball with us.’
Talking of leaving a bad smell, astronomers have discovered a new planet that could be the smelliest in the galaxy. In a new study published in Nature Astronomy, Oxford University researchers have unveiled L 98-59d, a world 35 light years away with a continual magma ocean and deep stores of sulphur within its molten interior. Observations from the James Webb space telescope suggested an atmosphere rich in hydrogen sulphide, usually associated with the unappetising scent of rotten eggs, in a quantity that makes this planet particularly pongy.
Good news for commuters! Tube strikes set for Tuesday 24 March and Friday 27 March have been abandoned following talks between the RMT union and London Underground’s management. The dispute – over a four-day week being introduced – has not yet been resolved, but further negotiations are planned for the near future. Other strike dates from April are still going ahead, and additional dates for 16 and 18 June have been added. The union wants a 32-hour week – three hours less for the same salary as they currently receive.
With thanks to Lara Brown for additional reporting.
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