Trumps greatest miscalculation – Mar 16 2026

Plus: Commuter towns where house prices have fallen the most | How to boost your health this spring
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Monday, 16 March 2026

Issue No. 386

Good morning.

Donald Trump’s war is entering its third week and the global economy is buckling. The true damage of the US president’s offensive will be revealed this morning as the oil markets reopen after weeks of no Western movement through the Strait of Hormuz.

In the US, Republicans are beginning to sweat ahead of the November mid-term elections as they watch fuel prices soar and Trump’s popularity plummet. Memphis Barker, our Senior Foreign Correspondent, has the full analysis on what could be Trump’s biggest miscalculation to date.

Chris Evans, Editor

P.S. Try four months of The Telegraph for £1, including all the articles in this newsletter. If you are already a subscriber, make sure you’re logged in to read today’s stories.


 

In today’s edition

Priti Patel: ‘America is worried Britain has succumbed to a Left-wing coup’

The commuter towns where house prices have fallen the most

Plus, 15 ways to boost your energy, mood and longevity this spring

Email-exclusive offer

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Trump’s greatest miscalculation

Donald Trump said the US is in talks with Iran but Tehran is not ready to strike a deal to end the war

Memphis Barker

Memphis Barker

Senior Foreign Correspondent

 

As Donald Trump’s war on Iran enters its third week, the US president is still giving the impression that he is enjoying himself.

This weekend, he told US media that, after the first strikes on Kharg Island, he might hit the rocky outcrop through which Tehran exports most of its oil again “just for fun”.

However, the reality of the war is becoming graver by the hour, shown by the reopening of the oil markets this morning.

American consumers, who had little desire to start another open-ended conflict in the Middle East, already face petrol prices 25 per cent higher than before the war began.

Republicans are becoming increasingly concerned by the impact of the war, appearing on Fox News to warn of the risks to the party’s performance in November’s mid-term elections.

Despite Trump’s efforts to force the Iranian regime to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and thus put one fifth of the global oil supply back on to the market, Tehran’s new leaders show no sign of backing down.

Overnight, Trump revealed the US is in talks with Iran but said Tehran is not ready to strike a deal to end the war.

Source: Bloomberg

Trump’s strikes on Kharg Island have not proven sufficiently intimidating. If he decides to target its economic infrastructure, rather than just military facilities, Tehran has vowed to obliterate the entire island’s ability to export oil.

The allies the US president has spent much of the past year badmouthing and bullying with tariffs have not responded to his demand for warships to help reopen the strait.

Sir Keir Starmer has so far refused to send any ships to the crucial waterway as other allies resist Trump’s request for a “team effort”. However, it has been reported that the US president will announce that a coalition of countries will escort ships through the strait.

Reports emerge by the day suggesting that Trump did not give sufficient weight to the idea that, in a war for its very survival, the regime would cut off the strait. He is said to have told his team that Tehran would capitulate before then, and that the US would be able to handle matters if Iran did close the shipping channel.

The White House press team has dismissed such reports as “garbage” and “fake news”.

This morning, Trump’s options look painful in both directions. Either he must escalate, or he must accept this is a losing battle and walk away, leaving behind a brutal regime in possession, according to his own administration, of enough highly enriched uranium to make a nuclear weapon.

Neither option, to say the least, looks like fun.
Continue reading

Go deeper with our full coverage of the Iran war:

Starmer refuses to send warships to Strait of Hormuzand sends eight sailors instead

Trump to announce coalition to escort tankers through Strait of Hormuz

Follow the latest on the conflict as flights are suspended at Dubai airport after Iranian drone strike

Live updates: Oil prices jump after Kharg Island attack

 

Oscars 2026

One Battle After Another is a Hollywood liberal fantasy in movie form. Of course it won

Paul Thomas Anderson and the One Battle After Another cast

Paul Thomas Anderson, the director, and the One Battle After Another cast celebrate their Best Picture win

Robbie Collin

Robbie Collin

Chief Film Critic

 

Perhaps it should be no surprise that in the end, One Battle After Another, the dystopian thriller adored by liberals, won out over vampire horror Sinners at the 2026 Oscars, with counts of six and four gongs respectively.

Horror has rarely won big at awards seasons and Sinners’ tally was still impressive, with a particularly pleasing gong going to its lead Michael B Jordan, who was the outlier in the Best Actor race until the last minute, when a rush of love for his film, riding the rush of embarrassment over the Baftas n-word fiasco, secured his victory.

Michael B Jordan won Best Actor

Also to be celebrated was Paul Thomas Anderson, the director of One Battle After Another and one of the great auteurs of our time, finally getting a Best Director prize at 55 years of age. In all, it was a night where most of the right people won, save for the egregious slighting of Marty Supreme, my favourite film of last year, which walked away with not a single statuette.
Read Robbie’s piece and see the full list of winners here

Lisa Armstrong: The Oscars have finally embraced high fashion

Plus, see every look from the Oscars 2026 red carpet

 

Opinion

Michael Murphy Headshot

Michael Murphy

The Al Quds day rally showed a movement soaked in conspiratorial lunacy

Demonstrators recited bizarre slogans about the West as counter-protesters danced

Continue reading

 

<span style="color:#DE0000;">James Vitali</span> Headshot

James Vitali

Rural Britain is at breaking point, and Labour just doesn’t care

Continue reading

 

<span style="color:#DE0000;">Stephen Pollard</span> Headshot

Stephen Pollard

Gail’s derangement syndrome is getting out of hand

Continue reading

 

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In other news

Your sport briefing

Your essential reads

Priti Patel: ‘America is worried Britain has succumbed to a Left-wing coup’

The Chagos dispute, Starmer’s inaction over Iran and the Government’s apparent kowtowing to Beijing have put Britain’s special relationship with the US at risk, the shadow foreign secretary tells Annbel Denham, our Senior Political Commentator. After Dame Priti Patel’s recent transatlantic trip to meet figures such as Ted Cruz, she is in no doubt that Washington is watching closely.

Continue reading

 

The Met was duped by a twisted fantasist. A decade later, the real victims are still suffering

Martin Evans, our Crime Editor, was at a press briefing held by the Metropolitan Police in 2014 at which it was announced that one man’s claims of the existence of a VIP paedophile ring, including powerful men at the very top of politics and the military, were “credible and true”. Carl Beech was, in fact, a twisted fantasist, but before the truth came out, the reputations of Lord Brittan, Harvey Proctor, Lord Bramall and others were dragged through the mud. As Beech is released from prison, Evans recounts the disastrous Operation Midland.

For subscribers only

 

The commuter towns where house prices have fallen the most

Commuter towns were once a sure-fire bet when buying property. However, a sustained weakness in the market, worsened by high interest rates, have hammered the value of homes in “premium” hotspots. Telegraph Money reveals, in this smart piece of data journalism which is available to subscribers only, the areas where prices have fallen the most, and whether now is the time for well-placed buyers to take advantage.

Continue reading

 

Mike Green and his artist wife Lisa sold their family home and live on the Rebus Stone in Shoreham-by-Sea

How a houseboat community is attracting families and downsizers to a life afloat

Forget traditional bricks and mortar. Across the River Adur and further inland from the harbour, professionals and downsizers like Mike and Lisa Green are breathing new life into decommissioned Royal Navy warships by turning them into floating homes. However, boat life is not for the faint-hearted: “Every storm hits hard so we must be prepared to dig in, whatever the weather,” says one resident.

Continue reading

 

Isabella Tree believes Labour is completely out of step with the public’s feelings about the British countryside

Isabella Tree: ‘When we started rewilding, people said we’d undone a century of farming’

Claire Allfree visits conservationist Isabella Tree at her home on Knepp Estate, West Sussex, to learn how the decision 27 years ago to restore the 300-year-old farm to its uncultivated state has led to the return of endangered species in abundance. The approach has proved divisive, but Tree gives critics such as Monty Don short shrift, stating that he has “no idea what he’s talking about”.

Continue reading

 

Seize the day

15 ways to boost your energy, mood and longevity this spring

For centuries and across cultures, March has been the month to open windows, clear out dust and put our houses back in order. It’s a wise time to reset ourselves in readiness for more cheerful seasons ahead. Here are Telegraph Health’s top springtime picks of the easiest ways you can improve your energy, mood and long-term health at home.

Continue reading

Below one more article that I hope will improve your day:

  • With two windows for a short break in April, next month is perfect for a sunshine getaway. Here’s where to book.
 

Caption competition with…

Matt Cartoon

Matt Pritchett

Matt Pritchett

Cartoonist

 

Hello,

Thank you for all your brilliant submissions this week. The winner for this short but oh so sweet caption is Andy Shuttleworth. I hope you will commemorate this moment in true Lottie of Arabia fashion: with a selfie.

Above is this week’s cartoon, a country home. Send me your captions here and may the best man or woman win.

Matt Cartoon

P.S. For an inside look at what inspires my weekly cartoons, you can sign up for my personal subscriber-exclusive newsletter here.

 

Your say

Spring in your step

Every weekday, Orlando Bird, our loyal reader correspondent, shares an off-piste topic that has brought out the best of your opinions and stories.

Orlando writes…
Well, the weather may have been teasing us over the weekend, but the signs are still unmistakable: spring is advancing. There’s a freshness in the air, the cherry tree in my garden is luminous with blossom, and on Saturday I was upbraided by a friend for looking inappropriately “autumnal” (it takes a lot to part me from my heavy wool jumper).

With the longer and occasionally even warmer days comes the prospect of more ambitious walks, as opposed to the token stroll quickly abandoned for the pub. With that in mind, The Telegraph has compiled a list of the best, from Edinburgh to the Gower Peninsula.


 

Readers have offered their own suggestions. Tim Madden wrote: “The best bluebell walk in Britain is the unlikely environs of Coombe Wood, which is part of the Langdon Hills nature reserve in Essex. Hundreds of acres of public footways across fields and through woods, all the way down to the Plotlands reserve, and within 15 minutes of Laindon station. Essex’s best kept secret.”


 

Pete Barker added: “My vote goes to Skomer Island off the Pembrokeshire coast. In May, the fields are awash with bluebells, and the Atlantic Puffins are arriving for their annual breeding season.”


 

I’ve been in many noted puffin hotspots – Lundy, the Faroe Islands, the Scilly Isles – at this time of year, but am yet to see a single one. Perhaps a trip to Wales is in order.


 

John Langdale had another tip: “For a much shorter but still very beautiful walk, I recommend the ‘daffodil valley’ in the Valley Garden at Virginia Water, which helps me shake off the ‘winter blues’.”


 

Chris Hayes didn’t object to the inclusion of Seven Sisters, but did have a word of warning for walkers: “The last couple of times I’ve visited there’s been zero visibility in some places. I felt sorry for the tourists hanging around Birling Gap, where the view was obscured by low cloud.”

What’s your favourite springtime walk? Send your responses here and the best of the bunch will feature in a future edition of From the Editor PM, to which you can sign up here.

Please confirm in your reply that you are happy to be featured and that we have your permission to use your name.

 

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Author: East London

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